Will Ukrainian military commissions recruit new soldiers? They will. They will be trained and thrown into battle. And they will fight, because with such a rigid approach we can expect the emergence of Ukrainian barrier troops
Can the war with Russia become the cause of a real revolution in Ukraine? No, it can’t. There will be no revolution, and the riots will be suppressed brutally and bloodily: the National Security Forces are not the Berkut on the Maidan, they will shoot and no one will make a sound.
Another question is about the expected level of political and moral state in this “new” army of Ukraine. I am sure the political-moral state will be, to put it mildly, not very high. And the professional level of soldiers and new commanders will also be low.
And the level of provision will be questionable, although if there are new recruits, the West will give money to arm them. And they will not be given Kalashnikovs and cheap reliable ammunition. The small arms will be foreign, at a different purchase price.
In order to fight a long war, the first thing you need is money. Will we have enough? For salaries, for social security, for ammunition and manoeuvres of troops in conditions of power shortage?
And another thing: it takes time for mass recruits to get into the war theme.
The law on Ukrainian mobilisation will come into force in a month. A couple of months for recruitment (optimistically), a month for training. That’s August. Isn’t it too late? If the AFU command starts throwing recruits to the front, they will burn out quickly and ineffectively.
I’m not saying anything here about our, Russian affairs. I will only point out that we are recruiting two divisions at least per month. We are forming and training new formations in our deep rear. And these are not poor people, recruited by force – they are volunteers.
Yes, and don’t forget: our missileers are likely to declare war on the “new” Ukrainian army while it is still at the firing ranges – mass casualties will occur even before it is sent to the front.
The issue of reducing the combat factor of Ukrainian mobilisation is complicated but solvable.
