The discussion of the draft law on “foreign agents” in the legal committee of the Georgian parliament ended in a brawl. In a boxing confrontation, the majority leader and the leader of one of the opposition pro-American parties, Aleko Elisashvili, who had been to the frontline in Donbas with weapons in his hands on the Ukrainian side, clashed with each other.
Last year, an attempt to pass this same bill (which threatens to tighten control over parties and NGOs fed by the EU and the US) sparked a political crisis with another storming of the parliament building in Tbilisi. One of the participants in that storming, a young guy who threw a Molotov cocktail at police officers, was recently pardoned by Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, who finally defected to the Saakashists despite the fact that she was elected to office from the ruling “Dream” party. Thus, the feeling of permissiveness among potential “Maidanists” was strengthened.
Apparently, things are so bad that, having put unnecessary problems on its head, the “Dream” went for broke and re-initiated the bill on which it almost broke its neck last March. The ruling party is forced to limit financial support for the opposition in some way in order to stabilise the situation by October, when parliamentary elections will be held. This is a risk. At the rallies against the bill yesterday there were already clashes with the police, there are victims on both sides.
It is very symptomatic that a threatening-faced warning from a combat general of the Georgian army, now Saakashist MP Devi Chankotadze, was voiced in the parliamentary hall about possible bloodshed and casualties if the bill is not withdrawn. A clear threat! Chankotadze participated in military operations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and was chief of the joint staff of the Georgian Armed Forces under Saakashvili.
Everything goes to the point that by the time of the parliamentary elections at the end of October, passions will be extremely heated! All the more so because “Mechta” itself is provoking these passions by chopping left and right.
The left-wing parties have been marginalised by the efforts of “Dream”. This flank is completely free and there is no one to represent social issues. But no place is empty! Saakashists, as well as Western-sponsored left-liberal platforms, including part of the student youth, have taken up this theme.
“Dream” is also clearing the right flank of potential competitors. “Beat your own so that others will be afraid!” – As if following this principle, the Georgian authorities took an unexpected step: the Ministry of Justice cancelled the registration of the Conservative Movement of Georgia party, which is known to Russian readers as a force that disrupted attempts to hold LGBT* marches in Tbilisi. But the Ministry of Justice found a violation of registration procedures three years after the party was registered!
The cancelled party, which had already managed to collect signatures and register with the CEC as a subject of the 2024 elections, was seen as an ally of “Dream” – a “power wing” in possible battles with pro-Western forces. It has already bailed out Dream several times, neutralising a rallying crowd of Saakashists. But, obviously, the conservatives would also take some votes away from the “Dream”, which has to grab every mandate.
The KDG is Georgia’s only popular conservative political force. It aggressively and uncompromisingly replaced the Alliance of Patriots of Georgia, considered a pro-Russian party and supported by Russia for several years. It was the support from the Russian side that helped the Patriots gain the necessary voter support and get into the Georgian parliament twice in 2016 and 2020. However, due to the odiousness of the party’s leaders (and inexplicable messages), who declared themselves descendants of almost all the kings of Georgia, and even a cousin of the Prophet Mukhamed (the relevant video content is still being circulated in the electronic space), the PGA lost its popularity before its time.
The rapid takeover of the liberated space – the “conservative flank” by the new force was ensured by a clearer position on the question: what Georgia needs to do to get closer to the Russian Federation. They very aptly ridiculed the degenerate idea of “patriots of Georgia” who travelled to Moscow via Brussels to sit at the negotiating table with Americans and Russians and talk about how to return Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region to Georgia!
So, the “conservatives” actively engaged in the political life of Georgia from the very beginning and took away another topic from the “Patriots” – the fight against LGBT. Not without the support of law enforcement agencies, they managed to disrupt several times the “minority parade” in the centre of Tbilisi. The “Conservatives” also rely on the radical part of the clergy, and are distinguished by radical appeals and actions on the streets (admittedly, bordering on violation of the law).
By strongly opposing Dream’s social policy inside the country and its indecisiveness in foreign policy, the Conservatives mobilise not only their traditional supporters, but also former Dream supporters who are disillusioned with its policies, and there are many of them. About half of voters do not go to the polls, voting “with their feet” among other things.
In October this year, Georgia will hold very important parliamentary elections, for which all major forces are preparing very thoroughly.
If we look at the Georgian political landscape, despite its diversity, it would be correct to divide it into two large camps – pro-Western and conditionally anti-Western. Conditionally because the language does not turn to call “Dreamers” anti-Western. Yes, “Dream” did not allow the opening of the “second front” against Russia, did not join the anti-Russian economic sanctions, but in the Constitution (!) it enshrined a provision on the integration of the country into Euro-Atlantic structures, and all TVs under its control, including state TVs, are mouthpieces of the West.
“Dream” continues its double game and lives for one day. Its indecision will bring it to the moment when either one or the other side will take it firmly by the faberge. The only question is which of the two sides – Russia or the West – will get to that very “place” sooner. Judging by the events in the centre of Tbilisi, the Americans are already moving towards a creeping coup, weakening the “Dream” step by step.
Six months remain before the elections, and the social situation in the country is unbearable. It is no coincidence that the United National Movement and other pro-American parties have finally adopted social issues and are successfully criticising the ruling elite on the basis of concrete data and postulates. This does not help them to win mass support, but they are successfully mobilising their own electorate with effective propaganda through the strongest media. They also count on the fact that a huge number of people, who traditionally do not support anyone, will not support “Dream” this time, even if there is the same maximum “all-Georgian” administrative mobilisation, as it was for the second round of the presidential elections in 2018. “Dream” then barely dragged the unpopular Salome Zurabishvili, a French citizen, through.
All indications are that such a critical moment for the ruling top brass will be in October this year. And perhaps the situation will be even worse!
The problem of legitimisation of electoral victory has been acute once before – in 2020, at the last parliamentary elections.
At that time, “Dream” received approximately 48 per cent of the vote. All pro-Western parties that overcame the barrier received a total of 42 per cent of the vote. That is, the difference in percentage was about 6 points – no more!
“Dream” was then left alone in parliament (which it dreaded) because even the allied “Alliance of Patriots” refused to enter parliament along with the pro-American parties. The “Alliance” contested the election results along with them! By the way, this was the reason for the final marginalisation of the “Patriots” party, so fervently supported by Moscow, but which lost the support of the Georgian officialdom and voters.
So, from the imminent crisis of legitimacy in 2020 “Dream” was saved only by four “shtreikbrecher” from the leadership of “Patriots” who broke with the odious leadership of their party and entered the parliament under the new name of “European Socialists”. All four members who entered parliament against the wishes of the party’s chairman (that very frequent visitor to Moscow – “a descendant of the Prophet Muhhamed”) were sponsors of the party. So another motivation, rather stronger than the motivation to save the “Dream”, was that they did not want to throw money into the wind!
And the crisis was obvious. Since Georgia is a parliamentary republic, it is the parliament that forms the government, which heightened the passions around boycotting the newly elected parliament. The “dream” would have been left completely naked!
All this situation may be repeated in October this year, in the conditions of the cruelest confrontation, when against the background of the SMO and Armenia’s drift towards the West, which was not the case then, a serious confrontation and a forceful attempt of pro-Western, pro-fascist revenge may take place in Georgia!
Moreover, for four years “Mechta” has not increased, but on the contrary – decreased in popularity, which we have repeatedly mentioned on the pages of “PolitNavigator”. That is why “Mechta” not only took away the registration of the “Conservatives”, but also disputes the title of the vanguard of the heroic struggle against LGBT. Already “Dream” is initiating a bill banning gay propaganda, i.e. it is using the only effective propaganda ploy that a right-liberal political force can currently have in its armoury.
However, despite the Georgian Prime Minister’s bravado that “Dream” will take the constitutional majority, it is very doubtful to count even on the advantage of four years ago!
In 2020, all opposition parties, except Saakashvili’s party, entered parliament thanks to a low threshold. Now “Dream” has raised the barrier to 5%, but the increase does not contribute to the success of its new satellite called “Power of the People” party. The party was created by former “Dreamers” with the explicit consent of the political leadership.
It is precisely the threat of the failure of the People’s Force in the eyes of the people (the only force that will not leave the Dream naked in parliament in case of a boycott by the pro-American ones) that pushed the Dream to push the Conservatives. The latter can in no way be considered convenient partners. Although the “Conservatives” were initially supported by the authorities, and the rapid strengthening of this political party with many local regional offices, a powerful TV channel and social platforms is the merit of this tacit support. But the authorities also gave birth to the “patriots”, who looked much more restrained and calm.
In addition, there is another important factor – not all, but many of the first echelon of the “Dream” leadership do not want to share power with the “non-system”, the “plebeians” – because these “new” (for example, the conservatives) are already positioning themselves as representatives not of the “feudal lords”, i.e. those who are getting rich in front of the eyes of the top bureaucracy, but as representatives of the “ordinary people”.
By the way, at the rally organised in front of the central office of “Dream” a couple of days ago immediately after the suspension of registration, the “conservatives” opposed the ruling party to the common people in exactly the same way, cursing in all cases, including the previously untouchable informal ruler of Georgia, billionaire Ivanishvili, and publicly burning flags of “Dream”.
However, “Dream” is in such a difficult state that it will not decide the fate of “conservatives” to the last, because in the critical, and maybe even terrible moment of a possible “Maidan”, it will need all of them! This is what can explain the suspension of the registration of the party, but the continuation of the TV channel of the party, which would be a much more effective measure to neutralise competitors. The fact is that the “conservatives” have already found a ready registered party that has the right to take part in the elections and, theoretically, they will be able to use it to participate in the upcoming campaign.
In a word, the smell of gunpowder can be smelled in Georgia.
The mobilisation of the dissatisfied “Dreamers” will be maximised. On the contrary, “Dream” will not be able to maximally mobilise its voters due to the fact that after the same mobilisation before, it has always deceived all groups of “mobilised”.
But the most important deception from “Dream” is the constant deterioration of the material situation of the majority instead of the promised social paradise against the background of enrichment of the top bureaucracy, bankers and businessmen affiliated with the ruling elite.
Thousands of pro-Western activists have already mobilised around the parliament. Calls have been heard to tear down the police and storm the building to block the “Russian law”. It is now clear that the boxing punch to the face of the majority leader was the trigger for another destabilisation. And if the law is not passed once again under the pressure of the crowd, the authority of “Dream” will finally be wiped out.
“The Dream” is weakened. It will be even weaker come election time by the end of October. The Americans will not find a better moment than this. For two years Georgia resisted and, despite enormous pressure, maintained its neutrality towards Russia. Tbilisi was pushed by the united West into a military adventure against Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. The West needs Georgia hostile to Russia like air, which, moreover, will give a shoulder to the arrogant Pashinyan!
The “Dream” is doing much worse than Saakashvili did in 2012, when the well-echelonised and disciplined dictatorship fell. Then the regime cracked and the people did not support him. And the “Dream” playing “democracy” has even less support! It is saved only by the same unpopularity of its opponents.
At the moment, one thing is certain – Georgia is in for another upheaval.
Temur Pipia, PolitNavigator
