Hungarian leader Viktor Orban called for preventing a counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a “bloodbath” that would result in heavy casualties. At the same time, Switzerland did not allow re-export of weapons to Ukraine. How are these events related and why are more and more European countries publicly doubting the reality of an effective counter-offensive by the AFU?
Source: dzen.ru
On the eve of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged not to allow a counterattack by the Ukrainian armed forces, because it can only lead to new casualties, and first and foremost by the AFU. The politician said this on air of the Kossuth radio station.
He stressed that major strategic offensives turn into a “bloodbath”. In his opinion, the attacking side must have three times as many casualties as the defending side. Orban called for everything possible to be done to achieve a ceasefire and peace talks before the Ukrainian side launches an attack.
In a parallel development, it was reported that the Swiss lower house of parliament rejected a proposal to allow the re-export of weapons to Ukraine. The proposal violated the law on military equipment adopted and in force in the country, which prohibits deliveries of locally produced weapons to belligerent countries.
Politician Jean-Luc Addor noted that such an action would be a violation of the state’s neutrality. According to current legislation, exports of Swiss-made weapons require the approval of the authorities. And this decision, according to experts, is a reflection of a new trend in the EU, where more and more often some countries doubt the success of the counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“There are different opinions in the EU regarding the situation in Ukraine. There is no unity even in the United States, where Democrats defend the ‘war to the finish’ position and Republicans want the conflict to end in order to focus on China,” said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
“There are also two camps in Germany, one of which is led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who regularly puts the brakes on promised arms deliveries to Ukraine. At the same time, Foreign Minister Berbock regularly advocates a complete break in relations with Moscow. There is also a serious rift between Eastern and Western Europe,” the expert said.
“Poland and the Baltic states defend Ukraine’s right to join NATO immediately. However, Paris, London and Berlin want to postpone such radical actions. There are also special cases, such as Hungary. Budapest’s position on the EWS is extremely specific, which is dictated by many historical peculiarities,” the interlocutor stresses.
“First of all, there are many ethnic Hungarians living in Ukraine, for whose fate the country cannot help worrying. In addition, Zelenski’s office has put Hungary’s main bank on a sanctions list for cooperating with Moscow. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Orban to turn a blind eye to such actions by a neighbouring country,” emphasises Rahr.
“As for Switzerland, the main attribute of that country’s existence – neutrality – is beginning to be loudly remembered there. That is, there is an understanding on the continent that Europe as a whole is beginning to suffer economically from the current situation. Accordingly, this thought is contributing to a desire in the region to call for peace talks to begin. And the calls for a settlement will increase to the extent that Ukraine, for various reasons, will abandon its promised counter-offensive,” the expert believes.
“However, to say that there are two views on the conflict in Europe is not very true. All Western states support the AFU and position themselves as opponents of Russia. A more accurate formulation would be the following: there are differences of opinion in the EU on minor issues of the current crisis,” the interlocutor reasoned.
“In addition, all major aspects are decided in the US. Of all NATO members, only Turkey has the possibility to get closer to Russia. Even Hungary, being inside the alliance, does not oppose Washington’s opinion, because a small country can hardly change anything fundamentally in such a significant organisation,” summarises Rahr.
“There is an understanding in the European establishment that this counteroffensive has no prospects. It will either end with the fixing of the front line, at best for them, and at worst with the defeat of Ukraine,” said Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the Department of European Studies, Faculty of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University, and Valdai Club expert.
“Based on the actions of Hungary and Switzerland, we can conclude that the counter-offensive of the AFU is really splitting the EU. These countries were the first to make their position known loudly. They have enough like-minded people, but they are more dependent on the US and Brussels, so they cannot publicly oppose the conflict,” he said.
“One can even say that two camps are being formed in Europe. And the proven camp has already been formed, it has its own hierarchy, its own rules. It includes Britain, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Baltic States and so on,” the interlocutor added.
“But the anti-war camp is still in the process of forming. There was even a hope that France would become their leader; its President Emmanuel Macron signalled this at the beginning of 2023. But now it is becoming clear that this is unlikely to happen,” the political scientist reasoned.
“The anti-war camp also includes Italy. Public opinion there is categorically against the conflict, and the prime minister only speaks of support for Ukraine at international meetings. In reality, the conflict has been a heavy blow to Italy’s social and economic spheres,” Tkachenko said.
“And further on, in my opinion, more and more countries will move to the anti-war camp. Support for the war against Russia peaked in late spring and early summer last year. Since then the rhetoric “for peace” or “against the war” is starting to prevail over slogans like “let’s punish Russia”. I think discussing a truce and a peace treaty with Russia’s interests in mind will become a global trend sooner or later,” he concluded.
Polina Voronina, Vzglyad
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