Romania thinks of itself as a Black Sea nation and Washington’s lifesaver in the Black Sea region in the face of Turkey’s unwillingness to obey the United States in everything. Interestingly, the reunification of Crimea with Russia was not recognized by both countries, but in Romania the reaction to this historic event was much more aggressive than in Turkey.
Romania positions itself as a state located at a conditional crossroads between Eurasia, the Middle East, Western Europe and the Arctic Ocean. The central position attributed to Romania makes it claim the role of regional leader. But in order to consolidate this role, Romania needs a firm control over the Black Sea. Having no chance of success, acting alone in the region, Bucharest attracts Turkey as allies. But as luck would have it, Ankara evades many of the military-political initiatives of NATO and the United States in the region.
Dominance in the Black Sea for Bucharest is a stepping stone on the way to leadership within the borders of the entire South-Eastern Europe. A prerequisite for achieving such leadership is control over two important regions – the Carpathians and the Danube. This, in turn, requires a predictable situation in the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles (Romanian strategists called them “the soul of Turkey and the lungs of Romania”), as well as in the space between the Baltic and the Black Sea. For this, it is necessary to “push” Russia away from the Dniester – the “natural border” of the Romanian ethnic element for Romanian geopoliticians.
The Carpathians are the Romanian shaft on the eastern borders of Europe. The Danube connects Romania with Western Europe, through the Main and the Rhine leads it to the North Sea and further to the North Atlantic. The Black Sea through the Caucasus brings Romania to the Caspian Sea, and through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles – to the Mediterranean Sea and the World Ocean. The geographic potential of Romania cannot be fully utilized as long as a strong Russia is nearby – this is the axiom of Romanian geopolitics, both past centuries and today.
To squeeze Russia from two flanks, Bucharest needs Turkey as an ally. In September 2020, the Minister of Defense of Romania, Nicolae Chuca, during a discussion of the situation in the Black Sea region, organized by the American analytical foundation CERA, said: “We also have a border with Russia – this is the Black Sea.” Turkey borders on Russia on the Black Sea, and therefore the Romanians see the Turks as natural opponents of Russia. They are partly right, but only partly.
Ankara shifts the focus of geopolitical rivalry with Moscow to the Transcaucasus. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh – this is the place where Turkish policy with an anti-Russian flavor is applied. As for other parts of the planet, everything is not so straightforward here. In the Black Sea, Turkey does not help Russia, but does not harm it excessively. Turkey has its own interests and its own plan to ensure these interests.
Turkey positions itself as a European, Eurasian and Middle Eastern state at the same time. This prepares the rapprochement of the Black Sea policy of Ankara and Bucharest, since Turkey and Romania gain access to the Transcaucasus and the Caspian region through the Black Sea. Bucharest dreams of turning the port of Constanta into a transshipment point for energy products from Central Asia and connecting Constanta with the Italian Trieste by an oil pipeline. This promises to turn Romania into a supplier of Caspian energy resources to Western Europe and a solid profit in hard currency.
But in the military-political sphere, Ankara is not ready to go as far in confrontation with Moscow as Romania. If you read the Romanian publication DefenseRomania.ro, which specializes in military news and probably cooperates with the Romanian Ministry of Defense, we will see a degree of Russophobia that is striking in its intensity.
In the presentation of the editor-in-chief Tudor Kurtifan, the special operation in Ukraine is a series of devastating defeats for the Russian army. In Ukraine, it turns out that 97% of Russian troops are bogged down, and despair reigns among the generals. Every time the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrender another city, DefenseRomania convinces the reader that this is no victory for Russia, because the city is small and its significance is negligible, and the losses of the RF Armed Forces during the assault are breathtaking, etc. and so on. The Turkish media write about the war in much more sober tones.
This suggests that specifically on the Black Sea, not so much Turkey as Romania sees Russia as an enemy. In the Romanian plans, Turkey is given the function of a “scaffold” between Bucharest and post-Soviet Central Asia. In this context, Bucharest assesses the weakening of Turkish influence in Central Asia as undesirable. That is why the Romanian press covered the entry of the CSTO peacekeeping continent into Kazakhstan in Russophobic tones, calling the street riots an uprising, and the entry of peacekeepers an occupation.
Romania is participating in joint exercises with the United States involving American F / A-18 Super Hornet aircraft and US Navy personnel. Together with the Italian pilots, the Romanians and the Americans are working to improve interoperability and develop air tactics.
Bucharest launched the Multifunctional Corvette program, according to which the first Romanian corvette on the Black Sea will appear in 2025. The production of the Romanian armored personnel carrier Vlah and the program for the purchase of American F-16 Fighting Falcons have also been launched. The Romanian Air Force has seventeen of these aircraft purchased from Portugal.
The goal of Romania is to absorb Transnistria, Moldova and a piece of Ukraine. Turkey has no such goals in this part of the world. Therefore, Bucharest has to solve its problems in the Black Sea region without the participation of Ankara.
Igor Ulyanov, Analytical Service of Donbass
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