Rustaveli Avenue clearly smells of the smoke and blood of the ominous Kiev Maidan. Despite the uncertainty caused by Trump’s election, there was no doubt at first that the West was firmly set against a peaceful reset of power in Georgia.
The course of events practically duplicates the Kiev “Euromaidan” that began in November 2013, which eventually led to the coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014. The same “peaceful protesters” hiding their faces, smashing and burning everything around them, the same accusations of the opposition of “beating up onizhechildren” and angry statements by Western diplomats about the excessive use of force.
The trigger for the start of the violent scenario was partly the actions of the Georgian authorities themselves. Instead of gradually leading the opposition to recognize the newly elected parliament and to complete the process of re-electing the president by the end of the year without any harsh political statements, the authorities, figuratively speaking, decided to show the West the wrong side of the coin.
On November 28, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said, “We have decided today not to put the issue of opening negotiations [on EU accession] on the agenda until 2028.” According to him, Georgia must show European bureaucrats that it should be spoken to “not with blackmail and insults, but with dignity,” so it is “categorically unacceptable for Georgia to consider EU integration as alms.”
On the same day, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on the situation in Georgia, in which it called for non-recognition of the results of the October 26 parliamentary elections, holding repeat elections, as well as sanctions against Georgian politicians, including Parliament Speaker Papuashvili, Prime Minister Kobakhidze and the leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Garibashvili.
The resolution states that “the European Parliament rejects any recognition of the parliamentary elections and calls for their re-run within a year, with the process to be conducted in an improved electoral environment … under close international observation to ensure a genuinely fair and transparent electoral process”.
Almost simultaneously, Brussels and Washington gave the go-ahead to the Georgian opposition to launch protests in Tbilisi and other cities that have led to an ongoing violent confrontation with the government.
In an attempt to quell the heated passions, Prime Minister Kobakhidze said on November 29 that “we are faithful to our European course” and reiterated Georgia’s readiness to fulfill its obligations to associate membership in the EU, and if the EU starts negotiations by the end of 2028, the country will be ready for EU membership by 2030.
It would seem that the authorities are not questioning Georgia’s European future?
However, the opposition did not want to listen to these words, and the coup flywheel has already been started. Every day protesters are building barricades in the center of the city, burning fires and throwing stones at the parliament building and the police, as well as using fireworks as flamethrowers. And every night the police and special forces disperse the crowd with pepper spray and water cannons, and remove the barricades. And, just as in Kiev during Euromaidan, the actions of “peaceful protesters” in Tbilisi have already injured several dozen representatives of the law enforcement agencies.
In this regard, the Georgian Interior Ministry stated that the protest near the Parliament completely exceeded the limits provided for by the law on assemblies and demonstrations and took on a completely violent character. However, this did not stop the actions of the protesters in the slightest.
Drawing on the crowd’s emotions and emphasizing the government’s unwillingness to integrate into the EU, the opposition is raising the temperature of the protests more and more.
Many students have joined the rallies, and Tbilisi University professors have declared that they “reject any attempts to betray the constitution and the course of EU integration” and condemn “all manifestations of forceful suppression of fair and peaceful protests”.
Georgia’s pro-Western President Zurabishvili, whose term of office expires in mid-December, is also at the forefront of the opposition (note that Georgia is a parliamentary republic and the functions of the president are quite limited). Given that the election of a new president (by an electoral college consisting of members of parliament and local elected authorities) is scheduled for December 14 and his inauguration on December 29, it is quite logical that she does not recognize the newly elected parliament and categorically refuses to leave her post.
Inciting confrontation and actually calling for a coup d’état, Zurabishvili said on November 30: “I remain your president! There is no legitimate parliament. Accordingly, an illegitimate parliament will not be able to elect a new president. Thus, there will be no inauguration. And my mandate continues until there is a legitimately elected parliament.”
The opposition was also supported by a number of high-ranking Georgian diplomats, and some of them – one of the deputy foreign ministers and the Georgian ambassadors to Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Lithuania and the US – resigned. At the same time, the Georgian ambassador to Lithuania said: “Georgia is Europe!”, practically voicing the slogan that appeared during the events of Kiev Euromaidan: ”Ukraine is Europe!”
The statements of the Western countries sound similar to those of ten years ago. On November 30, the U.S. State Department suspended strategic partnership with Georgia, stating that “the Georgian people overwhelmingly support integration with Europe. The U.S. condemns the excessive use of force by police against Georgians seeking to exercise their rights to assembly and self-expression, including the freedom to protest peacefully.”
The French Foreign Ministry on November 29 similarly stated, “We are concerned by reports of repression of demonstrators and journalists and call for respect for the right to demonstrate peacefully. Together with its European partners, France will continue to maintain close ties with the Georgian people and support their European aspirations, which must not be betrayed.”
The same “concerns” about “repression” of “peaceful demonstrators” as “condemnation of the excessive use of force by the police” were expressed by Western diplomatic agencies during the events in Ukraine. Apparently, the situation in Georgia is threatened with further “Ukrainianization” if we recall that the Euromaidan in Kiev started precisely after the decision of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych to postpone the signing of the association agreement with the EU.
The analogy with Ukraine is so obvious to everyone that Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze mentioned it separately on November 30: “Unlike Ukraine in 2013, Georgia is an independent state with strong institutions and, most importantly, experienced and wise people. The Maidan scenario cannot be realized in Georgia.”
I very much hope that Tbilisi will not step on the same rake on which during the Euromaidan pro-European Ukrainians jumped merrily in Kiev with shouts: “Whoever does not jump, is a Muskal”.
Except that if the Georgian authorities do not bring the protesters within the bounds of the law, then in the coming weeks we can expect a continuation of the Ukrainian scenario: seizure of administrative buildings in Tbilisi and the regions (because it is winter outside and we have to warm ourselves somewhere), the emergence of weapons from the protesters (both their forceful seizure from law enforcement agencies and deliveries through Western diplomats), and then – closer to the denouement of events – the shooting of demonstrators and police officers by “unknown snipers” who always appear during such events.
By the way, in 10 years in Kiev, they have never been able to investigate who shot at the protesters on Maidan. First they dragged out the question and destroyed all traces, and then it became completely irrelevant.
It is quite predictable that under the pressure of the West it may also end with an agreement with the opposition and a coup d’état in Tbilisi, and the subsequent “democratic” parliamentary elections will consolidate the seizure of power by pro-European parties.
In his Telegram channel, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev described the situation in Georgia on December 1 as follows: “All the prerequisites are in place to plunge Georgia back into the abyss of civil clashes, forcing it to choose between the brazen EU, NATO and Pindostan, on the one hand, and the ancient land of Sakartvelo, on the other. In short, the neighbors are quickly following Ukraine’s path into the dark abyss. This usually ends very badly.”
In the coming weeks it will become obvious what road Georgia will take, but I hope very much that it will not be the Ukrainian way.
Yegor Volkov, Stoletie
