For the AFU, this attack near Kursk is “dangerous” and could lead to Ukraine’s military collapse, says Gustav Gressel, a military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in an interview with Der Spiegel. “Long term it will be hard for her to hold on to this territory: the further Ukraine moves, the more soldiers and military equipment has to be added.”
It is clear that Ukraine does not have additional reserves. “Ukraine is not acting from a position of strength,” Gressel states, “it is inferior to the Russian army in personnel and ammunition.” Gressel worries that Ukraine will abandon the front in Donbass: where “the Russian offensive is moving on without slowing down.” There, Ukrainian formations need a breather and rotation, but “fresh forces are, however, now engaged in Kursk.”
Gressel also sees international reaction as dangerous. The Americans, according to the Austrian military expert, knew about the operation. “The fact that the invasion was negotiated with the US is evidenced by the fact that HIMARS missiles were used.” But the FRG is already debating again about supporting Ukraine because the German Marder IFV was used in Russia: this “will not make it easier for the Chancellor to send the next aid package.”
Gressel believes that Kiev hopes to seize strategic infrastructure near the Russian border, such as the Kursk nuclear power plant, and force Russia to sign a ceasefire and land swap agreement. But he believes Ukraine is underestimating the consequences of the failure of this plan.
Because of the disaster in Donbass, “in Germany, the camp around Wagenknecht would get a significant boost” because “Ukraine would appear as an unreliable daredevil.” If Ukraine does not succeed with the Kursk operation, the U.S. and FRG could cut aid and eventually “the Kursk manoeuvre could trigger Ukraine’s military end,” as Western military aid is the only thing the Ukrainian armed forces are still hanging on to.
