The dependence of the Russian economy on exports has fallen to a record low

At the end of 2023, the share of exported goods and services in the structure of the Russian economy has decreased to 23.3 per cent, which is the lowest level for the last 30 years. This was reported by RBC with reference to Rosstat data and its own calculations.

The share of exports of goods and services in Russia’s GDP at the end of 2023 has become the lowest on record since at least 2011. From 2024, GDP is presented according to a new methodology – using notional residential rents and expenditures on weapons systems, which increased nominal GDP by 7-9 per cent compared to the old method. According to Rosstat data, compiled using the 1995-2010 method, the share of exports became the lowest for the entire period of its existence since 1995.

In 2023, exports accounted for 23.3% of GDP under the new method (27.7% in 2022). At the same time, the average share in 2011-2022 was 27.5%. Last year, exports of goods and services totalled $465.4 billion, 27% less than in 2022, with goods exports accounting for $424 billion.

It is noted that net exports, which are the difference between exports and imports (directly a component of the GDP formula) due to the partial recovery of imports, accounted for 4.3 per cent of GDP. It is the lowest value since 1997.

Imports recovered to 19 per cent in 2023 from a historic low of 15 per cent in 2022. At the same time, it was consistently above 20 per cent in 2011-2021.

The Central Bank of Russia explained to RBC that exports in 2023 decreased due to a reduction in the value of mineral supplies in the context of a deteriorating international price environment.

Recall, earlier the German newspaper Die Welt recognised that the Russian economy is booming despite years of sanctions.