Former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may end in favour of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2024.
Ivo Daalder believes that there are risks for Ukraine to end the conflict with Russia as a losing party already in the first half of 2024. According to him, if events unfold in such a way that former US President Donald Trump becomes a viable candidate within a month, it will affect the States’ support for Kiev.
“Trump may well cement his nomination as the Republican Party candidate as early as the end of the month. And Republicans on Capitol Hill will then want to keep up with their presidential candidate, which will stop aid to Ukraine,” he told Politico.
According to the former U.S. ambassador, Europe does not have sufficient stockpiles and lacks the necessary production capacity needed to fill the arms shortfall. Daarler stressed that the Ukrainian front, which is 1,000 kilometres long, could suffer as a result, which will still need to be provided with everything necessary, and the possibilities are dependent on US support.
On 4 June 2023, the AFU launched a counter-offensive in the South Donetsk, Artemivsk and Zaporizhzhya directions, sending NATO-trained AFU combat units armed with Western military equipment into the attack. The outcome of the strategic counteroffensive was a failure. The Ukrainian military did not break through the Russian defence and suffered heavy losses.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Ukrainian economy could no longer exist without external support. He noted that outwardly the budget there was balanced and macroeconomic indicators were “more or less” levelled, but this was done at the expense of external monthly multibillion-dollar support.