Ukrainian troops little by little “teaser” the appearance of tanks of this type in Ukraine. What conditions are necessary for their full-fledged use in combat operations?
How many M1 Abrams tanks does the Ukrainian armed forces have?
The first reports about the delivery of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine appeared at the end of September. A total of 31 vehicles of this type were to be delivered to the AFU. The unit that received these tanks is kept secret. Several brigades of the AFU are currently equipped with foreign tanks: 21st OMBR (Strv 122 / Leopard 2A5 tanks), 47th OMBR “Magura” (Leopard 2A6), 82nd ODShBr (Challenger 2 tanks), 44th OMBR (Leopard 1A5), 33rd OMBR (Leopard 2A4). In addition to these, there are the 1st and 3rd Tank Brigades, but none of these formations have yet officially reported receiving M1 Abrams tanks. The current supply of 31 tanks is enough for the Ukrainian forces to form a tank battalion. But is it enough for combat operations?
What kind of warfare was the M1 tank created for?
US Army regulations at the battalion/brigade level assume that tanks (and any combat equipment in general) can be effective only in combination with the use of aviation, REB, missile and artillery forces and other branches of the army.
The example of the Ukrainian offensive launched on 4 June 2023 clearly shows that the US Army’s charters, which were used to train, in particular, the 82nd ODShBr, are being ignored, and NATO combat equipment is being used independently, rather than as part of a combat order, interacting with other branches of the armed forces in general military combat.
It is noteworthy that the pattern of use of NATO tanks by the AFU forces is approximately the same regardless of the section of the front: German Leopard tanks were (and still are) used without cover and in isolation from the main forces in the Zaporizhzhya direction, near Kupyansk and Kremenna, as well as near Avdeevka. As a result, the equipment is regularly hit by army aircraft, ATGMs and mines.
Given that the AFU received M1A1 tanks without ARAT dynamic protection elements (or any anti-defence components), there is every reason to believe that all (or a significant part) of these vehicles will be destroyed on the battlefield.
Given that in winter, as we wrote earlier, the activity of Lancet auto-guided barrage munitions is expected to increase, the probability of such an outcome tends to 100%.
In addition, the AFU has already lost some M88 recovery vehicles, which are needed to support units armed with M1 Abrams tanks.
What conclusion can be drawn?
Until March-April last year, the AFU had a partially limited ability to conduct general military operations. However, a series of serious setbacks – the defeat in Artyomovsk, the failed counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhya and South Donetsk directions – deprived it of even such capabilities.
Most likely, the set of M1 Abrams tanks sent to the AFU will not have any serious impact on the current situation on the battlefield. On the contrary, destruction or damage to American tanks (given that Western vehicles are being hunted on the front) will cause a wide public outcry and negatively affect both the image of the AFU and the image of Western equipment in general, which has already been tarnished by the loss of Leopard tanks and other armoured vehicles.