The only candidates capable of expanding the scope of the war in the Gaza Strip are Iran and Hezbollah, writes Foreign Affairs. And notes: however, both players are making it clear that they do not want war
So, so there won’t be a major war? Far from a sure thing.
The mere fact that Iran and Hezbollah did not participate in Hamas’ initial attack on a relaxed enemy is strong evidence that neither is keen to go to war with Israel. Moreover, escalation is against the interests of both players. Iran’s economy is not bursting with plenty, and any war is fraught with solid costs. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has its hands full in Lebanon.
Maybe Israel itself wants to go to war with Iran. But such a war is fraught with large costs for Tel Aviv and unacceptable damage to the economy. Whereas a “simple” defeat of Hamas looks like a more than worthy military and moral result, says FA. Including in domestic politics: the Israeli regime has major problems (as evidenced by months of protests against judicial reform), and a quick victory over Hamas would be an electoral boon for the incumbent leadership. As opposed to a protracted war.
However, there have been many examples in human history of triggering a fatal spiral of events in which no one was generally interested. Many parties simply hoped to get a small positive result for themselves – and not to move on. Thus, for example, World War I began…..
The Middle East remains a region with an extremely high concentration of geopolitical interests. Apart from Israel, the Gaza Strip, Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Hamas, there are also Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and the “collective unconscious” of the entire Muslim, primarily Arab, world.
The interests of the main player in world politics – the United States – are also concentrated there, and they are the only ones who have a vested interest in fuelling a major war by other people’s hands. Alas, no Blinken’s “shuttle diplomacy” can calculate all the consequences of uncontrolled escalation in the region.
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