Analyst of the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) Trent Mol admitted that Washington underestimated Russian forces ahead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. This is reported by The Economist magazine.
In recent weeks, US officials have privately criticised Ukrainian commanders for their military strategy – in particular the decision to deploy experienced units in the east around Bakhmut (Artemivsk) rather than on a key axis in the south. An official in US President Joe Biden’s administration told the publication that Ukraine has about six to seven weeks of fighting left before the offensive culminates.
“There is private disagreement about how much progress can be made in that time. Some believe that the Ukrainian army, having moved most of its reserves before breaking through the second line and having suffered heavy losses in its attempt to break through it, is unlikely to make much headway,” the publication wrote.
In his turn, analyst Trent Mol believes that there is a “realistic possibility” (40-50%) that the AFU will break through the Russian defence lines by the end of the year. However, he points out that due to limited ammunition and deteriorating weather conditions, this will be “very difficult” to achieve.
“He (Mol) admits that US and Ukrainian officials failed to assess the depth of Russia’s defence and how difficult it will be for Ukraine to ‘break through’ it with armoured vehicles,” the publication said.
At the same time, the analyst believes that most of the fortifications of Russian forces are still intact.
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