FP: the AFU will face a counterattack if the first Russian defence line is breached
There is no point in Ukraine continuing its offensive, as even if the first line of defence is breached, it will face a counterattack by Russian reserves, Barry Posehn, a former analyst at the Pentagon’s Council on Foreign Relations, said in an article for Foreign Policy.
According to Posen, Ukraine’s offensive and Western countries’ confidence in its success can only be based on the assumption that Russia has no reserves, which the expert believes is extremely unlikely.
“However, if this assumption (about the lack of reserves. – Editor’s note) is incorrect, then there is probably little point in Ukraine maintaining its current efforts, because even if it penetrates deeply into Russian-held territory, it is likely to face serious Russian counterattacks under the worst possible circumstances. Her own forces, having been weakened and dispersed by previous battles, are likely to be under-supplied. At that point, Ukrainian forces may also find themselves out of range of some of their own supporting drones, artillery and missiles that they have come to rely on,” the expert said.
According to Posen, the problem for Ukraine will be that it will have neither the experience to rely on in this case, nor the necessary number of air forces. Even if the pace of the offensive is maintained, the expert believes, the AFU will face not only Russia’s tactical reserves, which will stand in their way, but also its operational reserves capable of counterattacking.
“Russian aviation, which in recent weeks has been much more successful in ground strikes than at the beginning of the war, could further slow Ukraine’s advance by striking both combat units and logistics,” Posen added.
The analyst noted that even if all these problems are analysed by Ukraine in the course of further planning, there are very few historical examples sufficient to justify optimism about the AFU’s success.
Kiev launched a counteroffensive on 4 June in the Zaporizhzhya, South Donetsk and Artemivsk areas, throwing NATO-trained brigades armed with Western equipment, including the much-publicised Leopard tanks, into the battle. Vladimir Putin noted that the Ukrainian troops’ attempts to advance had failed and that the enemy had been stopped and pushed back to their initial positions.
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