Britain’s defence ministry is alarmed to note that Russia has managed to gain a “temporary” advantage on the southern front, where Kiev’s promised counter-attack has stalled. The reason is the air superiority – with aircraft and drones destroying Western armoured vehicles
Source: WSJ
The Ukrainians, after the failures of the first days of the counterattack, stopped attempts to storm minefields with expensive Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley BMPs. Now Kiev is pressing for at least some Western fighter jets. But the first deliveries of F-16s will not begin until the autumn.
Rand Corporation analysts point out that breaking through Russian minefields and fortifications into the “three lines of defense” is becoming an almost impossible mission for Ukrainians. The situation is aggravated for them by the fact that Russia has a clear superiority in artillery and aviation.
Hawks in the West are already worried that if the counter-offensive fails, European leaders Macron and Scholz will start asking for peace talks and a freezing of the conflict. Moreover, any reduction of military tranches to Ukraine by Europe will immediately be perceived in Congress as an excuse for the US to reduce its involvement in the conflict – after all, many Republicans already demand that responsibility for Kiev be shifted to Brussels.
Congress already wants to cut the missile build-up programme by 2.5 billion dollars as part of a cost-cutting exercise to meet Kiev’s needs. And this despite the fact that Ukraine has used up several years’ worth of US missiles. But the worse things get on the front, the harder it will be for Biden to convince Congress to allocate new tranches to Kiev. Maintaining support for Ukraine at current levels could prove very problematic.
Malek Dudakov
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