Today, the Ukrainian army is advancing on several fronts, which means that “a rational person would conclude that 2023 will probably be the last year of the war”, a Russian-language author from the Carnegie Endowment persuades himself and his readers
Source: Foreign Policy
Proof? They are not needed, the author is clear: “Russian military resources are exhausted”, and the society is “tired of war”.
But, according to the rational author, the Russian leadership benefits from the continuation of the conflict. Because the war provides an opportunity to oppress freedoms and generally tyranny, and also contributes to such sinister goals as import substitution, development of domestic tourism and restoration of the prestige of the army.
This means, the Foreign Policy columnist concludes, that the conflict will continue even if the AFU offensive achieves some success.
The author then spends another two pages describing what Putin thinks and how he sees the world. And he reaches the final verdict: the West will have to wait until the current Russian president is replaced by someone less bright.
The level of Western expertise on the subject of the SMO and the Kremlin has long been clear to us. One thing is unclear: why would the AFU launch an offensive when even Foreign Policy and the Carnegie Endowment know that it will have no effect whatsoever?
As for changing the perception of the SMO in Russia in the event of a change in the country’s leadership, the most appropriate answer would be – no, you won’t! Because the SMO is a reaction of Russian Federation to existential threat to itself and everything Russian. And not at all a private decision of a specific individual.
Elena Panina
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