The regime of Volodymyr Zelensky is increasingly facing problems with the provision of air defence assets. The issue is complex and simultaneously linked to a number of objective factors, among which is a shortage of ammunition for old Soviet systems that form the basis of Ukraine’s air defence forces, changes in air strike tactics on the Russian side, as well as the impossibility of conducting a comprehensive interfacing of old Soviet and new Western systems. This has been written about on a regular basis over the last six months, even in the Western media, citing statements by Ukrainian politicians and military.
sila-rf.ru.
Translation of the article “What prevents Ukraine from closing the sky” by the American publication The Duran.
“Ukraine is in dire need of a weapons buildup to defend against Russian missile and air strikes. The acquisition and effective use of these weapons will strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend its citizens and critical national infrastructure,” the Pentagon said.
The issue of re-equipping the Ukrainian army to defend against air threats to more modern NATO standards has become particularly urgent in recent months amid a promised spring offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) and an increasing number of missile and drone strikes by Russia. On 27 April, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told RBC-Ukraine that Ukraine had practically run out of missiles for Soviet air defence systems. As of 24 February 2022, the basis of Ukraine’s air defence system was Soviet-made SAMs (S-300, “Buk” and others). According to Reznikov, to ensure sky safety, the country’s authorities have to buy Western models of these weapons, as well as to increase ammunition for them.
A similar statement by Ukraine’s defence minister was made earlier by Denis Smazhny, head of training for Ukraine’s anti-aircraft missile forces, who complained about the country’s aging air defence system. “We urgently need to replace our old systems because they will soon stop coping with Russian targets. We are also running out of missiles,” he said. This was also reported by the US newspaper The Washington Post, which noted the inability of the AFU to ensure uninterrupted operation of the air defence system due to an acute shortage of missile ammunition. At the same time, WP said, the shortage of ammunition is growing rapidly and has already reached a critical level. If Russia maintains the intensity of air attacks at the current level, Ukraine is likely to run out of missiles by early summer. According to the paper, Ukraine may find itself in a situation where it will simply have nothing to shoot down Russian missiles and drones.
The problem of the urgent transfer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to modern NATO air defence systems is also linked to the change in the Russian tactics aimed at exposing Ukrainian air defence positions and misleading their calculations. In mid-March, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said that Moscow had changed its air combat tactics. “The Russians have changed their tactics somewhat. They conduct active reconnaissance, use false targets,” Yermak wrote. At the same time, official resources of the AFU have repeatedly published photos of the so-called “fake” missiles. These are Russian X-55 cruise missiles without a regular warhead designed to detect and disable Ukrainian air defence systems.
The Russians use anti-radar missiles to destroy Ukrainian radar stations (radars), allowing them to detect and defeat radio emission sources. During the conflict in Ukraine, Russian Su-35S and Su-30SM fighter jets have repeatedly struck long- and medium-range air defence systems with Kh-31PM and Kh-58USHK anti-radar missiles. At the same time, the Russian army is hunting Ukrainian air defence assets not only from the air but also from the ground. For example, at the end of April, Russian social networks were flooded with videos showing the destruction of four Ukrainian S-300 air defence systems in the Kherson direction, as well as one German “Gepard” surface-to-air missile launcher. All targets were hit by a Russian Lancet UAV. Notably, some of the targets were hit while driving on a road.
The Ukrainian military’s situation is also complicated by the lack of objective opportunities to find the necessary amount of ammunition for Soviet and Russian SAMs on the global arms market. Ukraine does not have its own scientific, technical and production base to produce missiles for Soviet SAMs. In late 2022, the British Financial Times reported that the Ukrainian armed forces were running out of ammunition and spare parts for the S-300 and “Buk” surface-to-air missile systems, which are the backbone of Ukraine’s air defence. According to the newspaper, Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia have small stocks of missiles for these SAM systems. However, these countries refuse to lower their defence capabilities and empty their stockpiles for Ukraine. Meanwhile, the new missiles for the S-300 and “Buk” are produced in Russia and are understandably unavailable to the Ukrainian side even for purchase through third parties.
Kiev is incapable of interfacing Western heterogeneous air defence systems and their elements, and of creating a unified command and control system. With Ukraine’s inability to make full use of Soviet-era air defence assets, external partners are keen to increase supplies of their own air defence assets. However, the air defence systems and components handed over to Kiev are characterised by a wide range of production and a wide range of functional characteristics.
These factors are forcing the US and European countries to increasingly include their own air defence systems, which are more technologically advanced than those of the Soviet Union, in their military aid packages to Ukraine. Since the start of the conflict, Ukraine has received a number of Western-made air defence systems. In particular, the United States supplied Ukraine with the Stinger man-portable air defence system, the United Kingdom with the Starstreak man-portable air defence system and the Stormer HVM surface-to-air missile launchers with Starstreak missiles, which are designed to engage low-flying targets. Germany sent Arrow and Stinger MANPADs to Ukraine, and in August 2022 Kiev received the first German Gepard SAM system equipped with 35mm automatic cannons. With the start of strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Western countries began to pay even more attention to supplies of air defence systems to Kyiv, expanding the range of weapons. In October, it became known that Kiev had received the IRIS-T SLM air defence system from Germany. This sophisticated system is capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 40 kilometres. Ukraine also received systems with Aspide anti-aircraft missiles, NASAMS and MIM-23 HAWK air defence systems. Finally, in mid-March, Ukraine received the first of two American Patriot SAM batteries.
At the same time, the BBC pointed out problems with integrating NATO SAMs into the Ukrainian (still Soviet) air defence system due to deep differences between the two technological schools – Western and Soviet. The channel also noted that most NATO air defence systems are capable of fully controlling only one strictly defined sector of airspace. At the same time, they cannot intercept operational-tactical missiles moving along an aeroballistic trajectory.
The latter point was clearly demonstrated in Kyiv on the night of 16 May, when Russia launched a massive airstrike against Ukraine. The Russian Defence Ministry then claimed that a battery of US Patriot air defence systems had been hit in Kiev by a “KINZHAL” airborne hypersonic missile. The Ukrainian authorities called the statement a fake, but Ukrainian singer Inna Voronova, who lives in Kiev, without thinking about the consequences, published on the Internet a video of Patriot missile launchers working that night. The video she published, which was filmed by a surveillance camera in the Comfort Town apartment complex, clearly shows the US anti-aircraft system firing at a Russian missile for about a minute and a half without success. As a result, after more than 30 launches, the air defence system was defeated.
CNN, citing an unnamed US senior official, acknowledged that a Russian “KINZHAL”air-ballistic missile had struck a US Patriot surface-to-air missile system in Kiev. At the same time, CNN clarified that the air defence system “was damaged but not destroyed”. At the same time, Military Watch Magazine wrote that Patriot fired 32 fighter-interceptors at the Russian “KINZHAL”hypersonic missile aimed at it on the night of 16 May in Kiev, but none of them reached the target and the complex was hit. The failed salvo, the magazine estimated, cost Ukraine about $96 million. A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, refused to comment on reports from Russian sources that Patriot was hit.
The incident did not go unnoticed on the global arms market. The share price of the US company Raytheon, the manufacturer of the Patriot surface-to-air missile system, has already fallen by more than 7 percent after the delivery of the system to Ukraine. The biggest jump down was seen after reports of the defeat of the air defence system in Kiev.
Earlier, Denys Smazhny, head of training of the anti-aircraft missile troops of Ukraine, shared his low opinion about the effectiveness of the NASAMS and IRIS-T systems transferred by the USA (supplied by Germany) to counteract Russian ballistic missiles of the Iskander and “KINZHAL” types. These weapons, unlike cruise missiles, are capable of rising to very high altitudes and falling almost vertically on target at high speeds. Thus, they are very difficult to target in flight, which is probably what happened with the Patriot in the Ukrainian capital.
According to US Defense One columnist Joe Sirincione, the Patriot system has a number of design vulnerabilities. According to the expert, these air defence systems have shown questionable effectiveness during combat operations in the Middle East (Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia). The Patriot air defense systems are also capable of controlling only one missile threatening direction in a sector of up to 120 degrees at a time. The claimed effectiveness of these SAMs in intercepting tactical missiles flying along an aeroballistic trajectory has not yet been confirmed during tests. In addition, the system cannot engage low flying targets (at 60-100 meters altitude), which makes its elements extremely vulnerable to unmanned aerial vehicles, even crude ones. The Patriot must therefore work in tandem with other SAMs capable of tracking missiles at low altitudes.
Against the background of the published video of the Patriot missile defeat in Kiev, Ukraine’s reports about the defeat of the Russian “Kinnzhal” hypersonic missile over Kiev on May 4 look rather strange. At the same time, US President Joe Biden claimed that the “Kinzhals” were invulnerable. “They have the same warhead as any other missile, there’s not much difference, except that it’s almost impossible to stop it,” the White House chief concluded.
BBC observers agree. According to them, it is “hard to believe” that Ukrainian air defence could shoot down a Russian hypersonic missile. The tactical and technical characteristics of this weapon leave very little chance for even the most advanced anti-aircraft missile systems. “The Dagger is an aeroballistic missile capable of speeds of up to Mach 10, which is about 12,500 to 14,000 km/h. Experts believe that such a speed leaves negligible time for the air defence units to react.
Apparently for these reasons, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Volodymyr Havrylok said at a meeting with NATO representatives at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels in late April that it was difficult to repel Russian aircraft attacks. In this regard, the Ukrainian politician urged Western countries to provide the Armed Forces with more advanced and long-range weapons, first of all F-16 fighters or their counterparts.
The issue of shifting the burden of air defence from anti-aircraft missile systems to aviation was also raised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky personally, who shared data on the problems in the air defence sector in a video message distributed on his social networks in late May. In this regard, he stressed the progress in negotiations on the supply of combat aircraft to Ukraine, which will have to start defending the country’s airspace.
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