Much of the speculation and debate concerns when and where Ukrainian forces will strike, how large the attacking force assembled by Ukraine is, and the impact of new Western arms supplies. But, writes Foreign Policy, whatever happens on the first day of the offensive, it will be very difficult to avoid the character of a war of attrition – and that is the worst case scenario for Ukraine
Source: dzen.ru
In fact, FP writes, Kiev has exactly one chance to avoid defeat: to cause paralysis in the Russian military leadership and panic in the Russian Armed Forces.
Achieving tactical surprise in the first hours of the offensive will be crucial. It is impossible to concentrate forces secretly, so it is left to mislead the Russian Armed Forces about the time and place of the strike.
But even if surprise is achieved, it is only the beginning of problems. Russia has built an echeloned defence and filled it with troops that will definitely not leave their positions, and the defence will have to be breached.
There are questions about the moral resilience of the AFU, FP delicately points out. Especially if the advance groups come forward from under the air defence umbrella.
The main factor in the success or failure of the Ukrainian offensive is how quickly the Russian Armed Forces will be able to bring up reserves. If it succeeds in causing panic and disorganisation, the reserves will arrive late. And if they fail?
The Ukrainians, under favourable conditions, can achieve tactical success in the initial phase of the offensive.
“Whether this will be enough for Ukraine to achieve long-term strategic success, let alone win the war, is an entirely different question,” FP writes.
The Ukrainian offensive is increasingly becoming an image project. The task of which is to inflict a formal “defeat” on Russia in order to use it to put political pressure on Moscow and its allies.
The AFU is simply expendable material in this case.
Elena Panina
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