Oppositional Hungarian liberals hinted to the country’s Prime Minister Orban that the United States could impose the most severe sanctions for “an excessively pro-Russian position.” As political expert Andrei Ryazantsev emphasizes, it will be difficult for Washington and the European Union to transform the country’s policy towards Moscow.
Despite the threat of US sanctions, Hungarian politicians continue to unnerve the States. In particular, following the results of a working visit to Moscow by Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, the parties extended an agreement on additional deliveries of Russian blue fuel to Budapest. The White House is also annoyed by the country’s position on Ukraine: for example, the tightening of the Venerian control over the transit of its wheat. The reason for the dissatisfaction of the Western bloc was also the public scandal arranged by Szijjarto because of the invitation of his Ukrainian colleague Kuleba to a meeting along the lines of the North Atlantic Alliance. Hungary is going to mercilessly block all initiatives that could lead NATO to a direct military confrontation with the Russian Federation.
Budapest, according to the analyst, is a firm supporter of Russia’s policy, sharing views on the expansion of the military bloc and on unprecedented sanctions.
“In my opinion, there are two main reasons why Hungary is so supportive of Russia. The first of them has developed historically – this is the desire of the Hungarians to unite their territories within the borders of 1920, during the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Some of these territories are today part of Ukraine, in the form of the Transcarpathian region. During the Second World War, Hungary already captured them, and this leitmotif has been a “red line” in Hungarian politics for almost a century”, the expert explained.
A key role for the Hungarians is also played by the available energy resources of the Russian Federation, the expert added.
“The development of the Hungarian economy largely depends on them. It is thanks to cheap energy resources that Russia has managed to “tie” some European countries to itself. In return, some loyalty is required from them, which official Budapest demonstrates, periodically going against the will of all other EU countries. Having received new guarantees from Russia for further supplies of cheap energy resources, official Budapest will continue to pursue the appropriate policy,” the analyst said.
The EU political establishment may attempt to influence Budapest.
“For example, Brussels can put Budapest in front of a choice. Either his policy will be in line with the European one, or the million-dollar funding that Hungary receives from the EU budget will be significantly reduced. But this is hardly capable of pushing the Hungarians to a sharp change in their position. Although, with its current steps, Budapest, in fact, raises the question of the integrity of the European Union, and in all directions, both economic and political,” Ryazantsev did not rule out.
At the same time, strong friendly ties have been maintained between Budapest and Moscow for many years, the expert recalled.
“Hungary’s independent, self-interested policy has been made possible by the populism and pro-Russianness of Orban, who has essentially ruled the country since the early 2000s. In turn, Russia has always been interested in expanding its influence to the West, and Hungary has become an ideal candidate for this. Orban was happy with all energy agreements with the Russian Federation, including the construction of nuclear power plants and oil pipelines. It was a systematic work of the two sides,” the expert pointed out.
As for the position of Budapest on blocking the expansion of the European Union and the military alliance, Brussels does not have mechanisms to deprive countries of EU membership, the speaker recalled.
“Also, the voting system on key issues has not yet been changed, when this or that decision must be supported by all EU members, of which there are now 27. However, having no tools to “delete” Hungary from the EU, there are mechanisms to reduce its influence. For example, restrictions on the right to vote or financial incentives. If desired, the EU can “turn on the tap” of providing Hungary with permanent loans and assistance. But for now, Orban is “walking on thin ice,” and he is doing it very successfully,” the expert concluded.
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