I can assume that the adventurism of Ukrainian politicians and generals significantly exceeds the average level on the planet. But even they should understand that the offensive in the South in the context of ongoing battles for Bakhmut, Avdeevka and Marinka, as well as the activity of the RF Armed Forces in the Kupyansk direction (where the pace of the offensive is lower, but still the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually losing territory, and their strategic position is deteriorating) is a direct path to defeat
The fact is that any offensive, in order to develop and maintain the pace, requires a constant influx of fresh forces. In the current conditions of trench warfare and a long-term stable front, the requirement for providing an offensive with reserves is even higher. The formations located in the first line of strike groups can exhaust their potential even during the breakthrough of the first line of defense. And then there will be a second one, and then it will still be necessary to overcome the resistance of the operational reserves of the RF Armed Forces that have approached the breakthrough site.
And all this in the conditions of Russian aviation dominance in the air, which by no means makes it easier for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to work in the open southern area, especially now, when rare forest plantations have not yet turned green and there is, in principle, nowhere to hide in the South, except in urban areas. But the privilege of hiding in a populated area belongs to the defender. The attacker must storm the settlement. At the same time, they cannot suppress the Russian defense with the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia totally surpasses Ukraine both in the number of guns and in the number of shells for them. Until now, in different sectors of the front, the intensity of firing of Russian artillery is three to five times higher than Ukrainian.
Under such conditions, attacking a prepared defense saturated with troops, even in the presence of a numerical superiority, is a non-trivial task. So far, the numerical superiority in the same Bakhmut only allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defend stubbornly, because it is completely leveled by the superiority of Russian troops in armored vehicles, artillery and aviation.
And the very numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not as overwhelming as it was last year. In addition, the density of combat formations of the RF Armed Forces has reached normal values and it is no longer possible to break through into gaps not occupied by troops.
Bakhmut, Avdeevka, Marinka, Ugledar, Kupyansk constantly require fresh reinforcements to replace units and formations that have lost their combat capability due to high losses. Ukrainian reserves are rather limited. Sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine are very uncertain about the grouping of 40 thousand people, which can be called a strategic reserve and which the Ukrainian command is trying to protect without tearing apart. However, the dispatch of elite special forces units to the front as simple infantry indicates that the mobilized ones caught on the street are convulsively not enough to replenish units and formations bearing catastrophic losses. Thus, there is no need to talk about the possibility of a serious increase in the strategic reserve by Ukraine – it would be to save the existing 40 thousand.
Approximately to provide a grouping of 40-50 thousand people, the military equipment declared by the West for transfer to Ukraine will be enough. Without tanks, guns, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, air defense systems, at least some kind of aviation and a large number of various auxiliary equipment in modern combat, any grouping in terms of numbers is doomed. So the amount of equipment transferred matters.
I would like to emphasize that the promised amount is enough for about 40,000 people, but at the moment, Western partners have transferred to Ukraine 20-30% of the promised amount (in various positions). At the same time, the situation with ammunition is completely critical. The West, of course, promises a million shells (for 6.5-7 months of fighting with today’s Ukrainian economical spending, but if we reach at least Russian consumption, then for two months), but it is not yet known when these shells will be and whether they will be at all (they still need to be produced or bought somewhere).
Of course, some more troops are in the rear of the first line as tactical reserves. But they are intended, firstly, to replace retired (lost combat capability) formations, and secondly, to stop possible breakthroughs. Also, solid groups are located in the regions of Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov, Kyiv, and Volyn. But they cover the possible directions of strikes by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of Belarus, which Ukraine cannot leave completely without cover. In addition, from time to time these groups serve as donors, donating individual units and entire formations to sectors of the front that are under critical pressure from the RF Armed Forces.
In such a situation, Ukraine needs a 40,000-strong strategic reserve equipped with Western equipment to stabilize the front after possible breakthroughs by the RF Armed Forces in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdeevka, Maryinka-Ugledar or Kupyansk-Seversk, as well as to create a new front in case Russia strikes at Kharkov, Sumy or Kiev. The forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in these areas can only start a battle and slow down the advance of strike groups, but to stop them and form a full-fledged front, the use of a strategic reserve will be required.
No matter how you swear, Ukraine does not have enough troops for a strategic offensive. Nevertheless, the US demands to advance. Zelensky and his generals, although they are playing for time, referring to the real shortage of heavy weapons and ammunition, in principle, they do not refuse the offensive. The offensive is a symbol, including and even in the first place, of Ukrainian propaganda.
As already mentioned, in the absence of absolutely all resources, a successful offensive would be a miracle, and a catastrophe, squandering their reserves in fruitless attempts to attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine, would be a regularity. Earlier, I already wrote that the United States, by insisting on an offensive, is clearly trying to get at least some certainty. Even if Ukraine suffers a final defeat, the state of devastating war destabilizing the US European allies must be ended.
At the same time, Washington would not be Washington if it waited for the weather by the sea and did not try to turn defeat itself into a victory, or at least into a draw.
Again, we discussed many times the problem of the US’s desire to involve Poland, the Baltic states and Romania in the conflict with Russia. The Baltic States, with a high degree of probability, will act together with Poland, since the loss of Warsaw will also mean the forced surrender of the Baltic countries to NATO. It is simply impossible to keep this foothold without Poland. We also recorded the reluctance of the Poles and Romanians to engage in hostilities with Russia according to the Ukrainian standard – without the support of the rest of the West. However, in parallel, we talked about the fact that the catastrophe of Ukraine would put both Bucharest and Warsaw in a tough position on establishing control over the territories that Romania and Poland consider historically their lands (Galicia, Volhynia, Northern Bukovina, Bessarabia).
Romanian activity in Moldova, the unequivocal statements of Polish politicians about Galicia and the activation of Romanian nationalists – supporters of the restoration of “Great Romania” within the borders before 1940, give the United States hope that, under certain conditions, both Poland and Romania will send troops to part of the western Ukrainian territories. After that, the US will try to organize their clash with Russia and the start of the war.
Such a war will be fundamentally different from the current one. Now we have Ukraine at war with Russia for the interests of the United States, and Europe, forced to support an ally. But Poland, Romania, the Baltic States are EU countries. Their war will be the war of Europe, and the US will become an ally supporting Europe. Thus, Washington, not without reason, hopes to achieve another anti-Russian consolidation of Europe and increase its dependence on itself, as well as gaining a free hand in the Chinese direction.
Ask, what does the Ukrainian offensive have to do with it and how can it help the implementation of US plans?
If Ukraine tries to preserve reserves and takes a purely defensive position, then it is possible that it will be able to retreat and hold the front, up to Zbruch. That is, a catastrophe, after which the entry of Polish and Romanian troops becomes natural, may come too late: the Russian units that have broken through Zbruch will occupy the territory of Western Ukraine before the Romanians and Poles have time to react.
If Ukraine uses up all its reserves in an offensive on the left bank of the Dnieper, then after the collapse of the front, it will have nothing more to stabilize it with. At the same time, forcing the Dnieper and taking large cities (Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Kyiv and several smaller right-bank regional centers) will take some time. It will also take time to regroup the Russian troops, pull up the rear, etc. before the final offensive on the right bank. It will be one or two months when the catastrophe of Ukraine will already be obvious, but Russia will not yet be able to take control of its entire territory.
This is an ideal moment for the entry of Polish and Romanian troops, including “at the request” of the Ukrainian government already fleeing to the West. When “the Directory is in the car, the territory is under the car”, such decisions are made easily and naturally.
Actually, for this, to accelerate the process of disintegration and give it controllability that the United States is interested in, the Ukrainian offensive is necessary for the Americans. It can’t be of any use to anyone else.
Rostislav Ishchenko, Ukraine.ru
Due to censorship and blocking of all media and alternative views, stay tuned to our Telegram channel