Despite the decrease in the volume of blue fuel imports from the Russian Federation to 21.5 billion gas cubic meters, Ankara has practically no alternative to the Russian energy resource, – stressed energy expert Yuri Barsukov.
The reduction in purchases, according to the observer, is due to several factors at once.
“Firstly, there are obvious reasons for such a reduction in purchases: in the face of a price shock in 2022 and the continued weakening of the lira, Turkey sought to reduce purchases under all contracts linked to European gas quotations. In addition, gas consumption in the country has fallen. This is not surprising, given that even at current gas prices in the region of $600 per thousand cubic meters, it is much cheaper to burn fuel oil, not to mention coal,” Kommersant quotes.
Ankara has no real alternative to Gazprom’s supplies, since the price of liquefied natural gas in the European trading arena fundamentally contradicts the benefits of Turkish purchases.
“It now seems obvious that the Turkish authorities made a strategic mistake in 2020-2021 by postponing to the last moment the renewal of contracts with Gazprom for 8 billion cubic meters per year and tying their price to European gas indices instead of oil quotes,” the analyst continues.
According to the expert, Turkey did not expect such a sharp withdrawal of the Russian resource from the European market.
“Now LNG and, paradoxically, Azerbaijani gas, where the contract price is also tied to the European market, have become too expensive for Turkey. In addition, the availability of LNG has seriously decreased, and it is difficult for Turkey to rely on it in the winter months, given the competition with Europe. And as the lira continues to weaken against the dollar, the ability of Turkish businesses to pay for gas imports in the same volumes looks doubtful. In this situation, Russian gas remains the only source of flexible supplies for Turkey, and although Istanbul has been insisting on discounts for several months now, its negotiating position is not too strong now.”
The Russian transnational company Gazprom, according to Barsukov, could well agree to provide Turkey with a lucrative discount in exchange for helping the latter to acquire its own gas preferences.
Due to censorship and blocking of all media and alternative views, stay tuned to our Telegram channel