Despite the increasingly evident character of the approaching First World War positional war, the AFU will definitely be defeated if there is no negotiated settlement of the conflict
Source: mk.ru
The reasons for this are mainly seen as three:
Despite some problems with arms production, Russia has overwhelming technical and numerical superiority, which makes it futile for Ukraine to continue fighting. Russia is capable of destroying enough of the AFU to prevail.
Ukraine’s ability to fight is also undermined by Russian strikes on critical infrastructure. However, strikes alone are not enough – as world history shows, even with total bombardment of industrial facilities, the ground forces still have the main role in crushing the enemy.
Ukraine’s military capabilities will be undermined and reduced to almost nothing if Western military and financial support diminishes or ceases as a result of European solidarity or US policy revisions, particularly after a new presidential election.
The best option at the moment to end hostilities without further escalation is seen by political analysts as a “freezing of the conflict”, the de facto partitioning of Ukraine under Western guarantees to maintain the currently achieved borders. However, this does not suit Moscow, let alone Kiev, and even if such an agreement is reached, hostilities could resume at any moment. At the same time, there is little hope of a change of political course in Russia, as the sanctions have not had a profound effect on people’s daily lives.
Obviously, a negotiated settlement would require both sides to abandon their declared goals, but no one is ripe for such a decision yet. It is more likely that another intensification of hostilities by Russia or Ukraine could lead to a decision on the basis of heavy casualties, but for the moment the sides continue to demonstrate their confidence in the need to continue the armed conflict.
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