It would be wrong to think that the only motive for Hungary’s constant opposition in relations with the European Union is the desire to extract concessions for itself through constant “exchanges” and petty blackmail. Of course, we are very fond of just such a version when it comes to countries that give the collective West a headache, while formally remaining in its already not very harmonious ranks.
In Russia, they even sometimes admire the way Viktor Orban or, for example, Recep Tayyip Erdogan behave, they see in them almost the ideal of a clever and extremely cynical policy. It is generally accepted that the ability of these leaders to hold positions in relations with stronger partners is due solely to their diplomatic qualities.
But do not confuse cause and effect: Hungary can behave independently within the European Union only because it has retained sovereignty and a nationally oriented elite. In other small and medium-sized EU or NATO countries, statesmen are often much more cynical and bargaining. However, they are not independent by definition, just as their states are not free to choose the paths of development or concrete decisions. Therefore, in the first place, of course, is not diplomatic skill, but the foundation on which it is based.
This is what forms the content of the Hungarian anomaly in this case – the country remains one of the few that was able to maintain the comparative autonomy of the political system even while being inside the collective West. Those who rule in Hungary do not see their future in US foundation boards or EU bureaucracy, which is the dream of a lifetime for any head of government in Lithuania, Bulgaria or Estonia. That is, everything is simple: Hungary, unlike other small and medium-sized countries in Europe, is governed from within, not from outside.
True, there is also Poland, where nationally oriented personnel are also in power. Warsaw is cheerfully arguing with Brussels, Berlin and Paris over its restrictions on promoting non-traditional relationships or unwillingness to accept migrants. But this country is somehow controlled by the UK and the US. In addition, the historically conditioned hatred of Russia and Germany is in the Polish case such a powerful cultural phenomenon that it completely subjugates the entire foreign policy activity of the state.
What allowed Hungary to be an exception among the faceless and asexual countries of a united Europe? First of all, its own history, which combines bright victories and brutal defeats. Conquered from the Turks by the Austrians at the end of the 17th century, Hungary became part of the Habsburg Empire, but constantly caused them anxiety. The Hungarian uprising of 1848-1849 was suppressed with difficulty by the forces of all the provinces of the empire and with the active participation of the Russian expeditionary force. In World War II, Hungary fought on the side of Nazi Germany. During the Cold War, it was there that the most serious uprising against the USSR-friendly government took place. In general, the Hungarians are one of the European nations that the Russians have encountered most often on the battlefield over the past 200 years. Perhaps that is why they do not have complexes regarding Russia, which are characteristic of less fortunate Poles, Czechs or residents of the Baltic republics of the former USSR.
The Hungarian events of 1956, although they ended in a military victory for the Soviet army and the Hungarian communists, became a lesson after which the screws have never been tightened in this country as powerfully as in the other states of the Warsaw Pact. Until the fall of the communist regime in 1989, Hungary was rightfully called the “most cheerful hut” of the socialist camp. The modern Hungarian elite was formed on the cultural basis of the anti-Soviet uprising, Prime Minister Viktor Orban belongs to the same category of politicians. He himself first appeared on the big political scene in 1988, when the remains of Prime Minister Imre Nagy, who was executed after the events of 1956, were reburied.
Orban and the conservative Fidesz party headed by him finally came to power in 2010 and since then have remained at the helm of the Hungarian state. Throughout his reign, Orbán has pursued a policy of limiting outside influence on the Hungarian economy and especially on society. In the West, it is customary to call this policy populist. This is what they call everyone who does not contribute to the harmonious integration of their countries into food chains led at the global level by the United States, and in a more modest framework of European integration – by Germany. In modern Europe, the opposite is true, and populism is a desire to manage one’s own affairs, and not at all billions of dollars of subsidies with which the German government annually floods its own economy and households.
However, for the Americans, Hungary is too small and uninteresting in terms of geopolitical position. Even Budapest’s refusal to let weapons pass through its territory for the Ukrainian authorities in the spring of 2022 did not change anything: Poland, Slovakia or Romania are ready for anything at hand. But for the European Union, the behavior of Hungary has been a headache for many years. True, Germany or France themselves do not seek to publicly conflict with their Hungarian partners, as they do, for example, with the Poles.
To do this, they have Brussels, traditionally fighting with Budapest over Hungary’s inconsistency with conditional European requirements in the field of public administration or the rights of various minorities. Representatives of the European Commission regularly threaten the Hungarian government with the fact that the country will not receive the funds due to it from European funds. And they make concessions with no less regularity, since the bureaucracy, which has no national roots, and the authorities in general, are arranged in this way – it comes only when it does not receive a proper rebuff.
There is no doubt that Hungary cannot change the insane policy of the European Union towards, for example, Russia. In fact, it never even tried to do this – since the first confrontation around Ukraine, the Hungarian representatives in the EU have consistently voted for new sanctions against Moscow. In constant conflicts with Brussels, the Hungarian authorities are generally of little interest to Russia, as well as its interests. Therefore, to think that here we could find an ally, or at least an influential partner within Europe, would be an exaggeration. The same applies to other political forces in the EU that oppose traditional elites with their non-traditional values.
So the coincidence of Hungarian interests with Russian ones is, in a sense, momentary. And one should not expect that Budapest will become a mediator in the conflict between Russia and the West or be able to influence the behavior of Kyiv. Although Hungary is making some contribution to stopping people from dying in Ukraine: there is not a single Hungarian company among the companies involved in the supply of weapons and equipment to the Ukrainian authorities. Such a seemingly small, but in reality significant manifestation of independence is also a consequence of the special position of Hungary within the Western community of states. And we can say that our momentary coincidence of interests actually reflects their fundamental closeness – we are all fighting to preserve our sovereignty. In this sense, Hungary, while remaining a member of NATO and the European Union, also now belongs to the World Majority – the vast majority of countries in the world that are friendly to Russia simply because they do not want to completely submit to its opponents.
Timofey Bordachev, VIEW
Due to censorship and blocking of all media and alternative views, stay tuned to our Telegram channel