At the end of 2021, one can only sympathize with European diplomacy, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
“How deplorable are its affairs. My condolences”, said the official representative of the department Maria Zakharova in mid-December. What happened in Europe – and how could Russia take advantage of this in its interests?
Zakharova’s remark was prompted by the statement of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, in whose opinion the main thing that Europe has achieved in a year is “able to stop” the migration crisis.
The deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Ryabkov, soon entered into a polemic with Borrell. When the European diplomat said that the European Union should be a participant in negotiations on the development of legal security guarantees between Russia and NATO, the deputy minister retorted: the wish was taken into account, but Moscow still intends to speak only with Washington. Russia’s attitude to the EU as a non-negotiable structure may be the result of significant changes in the political landscape of Europe.
New chancellors and old problems
In December, Austria and Germany acquired new governments and chancellors. Freshly baked German leader Olaf Scholz has already begun to spoil relations with Russia. Although, according to political scientist Alexander Rahr, Scholz in the near future is still determined to continue the course that was set during the reign of Angela Merkel.
“But in the past few years, the German authorities want to carry out a” green “revolution, abandoning coal, nuclear power and even gas,” – explained the source of the newspaper VZGLYAD
“Because of this, I think, Berlin will begin to lose its leadership in Europe from 2022, more and more going into utopia and trying to forcefully push through “green” deals with its neighbors. Other EU member states do not follow the Germans – they are looked at as madmen”, he stressed.
The future of Russia-friendly Austria is less clear – in 2022, elections for the head of state are to be held there, for which the new Chancellor Karl Nehammer is now actively preparing.
“He and the ruling party (Austrian People’s Party) must regain the people’s confidence after Kurz’s scandalous resignation. A strong internal confrontation is envisaged, because of which Vienna will not have time for Europe”, Rahr said.
Will the Elysee Palace be taken away from Macron?
In France, the competitors of the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in the 2022 elections have been determined. One of the possible favorites in the race is the controversial writer Eric Zemmour, who is considered the “French Trump”. On the other hand, polls have shown that Macron may lose out to center-right candidate Valerie Pécresse, who currently heads the country’s largest province, Ile-de-France and previously had an internship in Russia.
However, Macron may refuse to attempt re-election, believes the French publicist Dmitry de Koshko.
“His “customers” – members of the transatlantic oligarchic circles – may not want this. Sarkozy did not receive a second mandate, Hollande, of which Macron is a continuation, was not re-elected either”, the source recalled.
“I do not rule out that Macron may pursue European, not presidential, ambitions. In July, a new head of the European Commission will be elected, which, in my opinion, may become Macron”, admitted Koshko.
“If he wants to stay at the Elysee Palace, he still has every chance: in his hands the administrative apparatus, the media, the sanitary situation, which gives strict control over the population. But the president has no mayors and local advisers. This is his main weakness”, the expert noted.
Zemmur and Pekress cannot be written off either. The first “left” on the “forbidden” topics – migration and gender policy, and the second was intended to “replace Le Pen,” the source said.
“Both have supporters and, what is important, both seem to be not Russophobes. I personally talked to Pecresse, she knows Russia, she expresses herself kindly”, said Koshko.
“Zemmur is supported in the circles of the oligarchy and the nomenklatura. True, there is an opinion that a certain “puppeteer” is hiding behind the sudden success of Zemmur in the political arena. According to rumors, this is the billionaire Vincent Bollore, who harbored a grudge against Macron after 2018. Then Bollore was detained in a corruption case. He expected that Macron would help him “smear”, but the president did not”, the journalist said.
Conflicts between London and Paris
At the end of October, Paris had a serious fight with London: a “comb war” broke out between them with renewed vigor, and there was also a conflict over the creation of the AUKUS alliance. In addition, in December, information appeared that Macron called the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson a “clown” in his hearts. Koshko explained this skirmish by Macron’s resentment against the British leadership. Even after Brexit, the United Kingdom remains the US’s “first ally”.
“I would say, the first among equals in relation to the master, that is, America. It is difficult for Macron to come to terms with this: he would like to be closer to the “owner”, but this will not happen simply because the British and Americans have the same Anglo-Saxon roots. It just so happens that they despise the French a little”, the interlocutor explained.
“Hence, the fishing disputes and the name-calling from Macron to Johnson. I am sure that the insult thrown by the French president was said during some ordinary official conversation, and then deliberately inflated by his PR people. Maybe to attract the votes of fishermen in the upcoming elections”, concluded Koshko.
Poland quarrels with the EU
In December, Poland became the first European country to take a step towards the collapse of the EU. It threatened to stop donating funds to the common European budget. This is largely due to the conceptual conflict between the leaderships of the country and the union. Brussels believes that the establishment of a disciplinary chamber in Poland, which will be able to remove judges from work at all levels, is an attempt on the independence of the judiciary. Warsaw does not agree and answers: it is the European Union that interferes in its sovereign affairs.
And this conflict will only get worse in 2022, says Mateusz Piskorski, director of the European Center for Geopolitical Analysis. In his opinion, Warsaw, despite the quarrel with Brussels, will never completely renounce the European Union.
“I generally deny the likelihood of Poland leaving the EU. The Union finances most of our investment projects, and by and large it is the only source of income after the Polish economy itself. At the same time, the country’s economy is very closely connected with Germany through the EU”, Piskorsky said.
“Withdrawal from the European Union will turn into a full-scale financial crisis for Poland,” he said. “As for the changes within Poland itself, we have the main expected event – the elections in 2023. However, I do not expect serious internal political changes even after the elections themselves”, the source said.
Brussels is losing ground in the East
Several other Eastern European countries will continue to quarrel with Brussels by inertia. In mid-December, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban accused the EU of raising the cost of resources. Claims in this regard, according to him, have accumulated from the already mentioned Warsaw, as well as from Slovakia and the Czech Republic. They proposed their own measures to change the pricing of energy carriers. Orban, by the way, is not very popular in the EU for partnership with Russia, and the Hungarian opposition even found a replacement for him.
“The fact is that the European Union imposes significant restrictions on states whose energy system is tied to hydrocarbons. In an attempt to pay attention to the climate issue, Brussels is pursuing a very ill-considered policy in this area, according to a number of countries. In fact, it runs counter to their interests”, explained Piskorsky.
Unstable Italy
Apparently, the EU does not tolerate any criticism at its own expense. What is the story of former Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who in March last year called the European Union “a nest of snakes and jackals.” This phrase sounded against the background of the already growing internal contradictions in the EU and the slowness in the fight against coronavirus. Soon, not without the participation of the EU, the government, which included members of Salvini’s Liga party, collapsed.
In this context, the new Treaty on Strengthening Bilateral Relations, signed by Italy and France in early December, is interesting. The media hardly noticed this document, calling it “highly symbolic.” However, experts believe that with this agreement, Rome and Paris are trying to reduce Germany’s influence on the European Union. So far Brussels has not given a clear reaction to the treaty, but this does not mean that the actions of Italy and France were not noticed.
Risks for Russia
The chain of the above events and facts testifies to the fact that Josep Borrell is indeed exaggerating when he speaks of at least some success in European diplomacy.
“Brexit ends with difficulty, the new German government does not have a leader of the level of Angela Merkel, France is approaching the presidential elections, and Macron has a precarious electoral position. All this complicates the EU’s foreign policy work”, Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
“Tension within the European Union continues to increase, because, in my opinion, the competence of the EU leadership does not correspond to the level of the challenges and problems that are falling upon it,” said Andrei Klimov, deputy chairman of the Federation Council committee on international affairs. In his opinion, the management of the European Union does not deal with internal issues, but “is very keen on political adventures outside its borders.”
“They are drawn into projects that are far from the real interests of the EU countries and peoples, which further complicates their work,” the senator said.
“From the point of view of geopolitics, the European Union is not in danger: no one will capture it, and it will not disintegrate in the near future. But the Europeans themselves could have lived better”, he added.