The number of illegal immigrants from African countries due to the aggravating economic problems amid the pandemic continues to grow steadily: in the first months of 2021, the territories of Italy, Spain and Greece reached more than 25 thousand migrants
Against this background, the contradictions that arose back in 2015 and have retained their adherence to principles are aggravating in the EU.
In September 2020, the European Commission proposed a new migration pact aimed at ensuring “a fair distribution of responsibility and solidarity among the participating States”. In addition to the accelerated procedure for the deportation of persons who did not receive permission, it provided for the following alternative: the state either accepted migrants and received financial assistance from the EU budget at the rate of 10 thousand euros per person, or refused and paid for its unwillingness.
The idea of a “fair distribution of migrants” has caused discontent among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia called the project “an attempt to undermine their state sovereignty”. Since September 2020, there has been no agreement between the members of the European Union.
In September 2020, the European Commission proposed a new migration pact aimed at ensuring “a fair distribution of responsibility and solidarity among the participating States”. In addition to the accelerated procedure for the deportation of persons who did not receive permission, it provided for the following alternative: the state either accepted migrants and received financial assistance from the EU budget at the rate of 10 thousand euros per person, or refused and paid for its unwillingness. The idea of a “fair distribution of migrants” has caused discontent among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia called the project “an attempt to undermine their state sovereignty”. Since September 2020, there has been no agreement between the members of the European Union.
The experience of the past years shows that in the summer months the situation, which is becoming more and more serious, can get worse.
For this reason, Europe is trying to find an operational solution and sees an alternative in concluding third-party agreements, such as the agreement with Turkey in 2016. As the European Commissioner for Internal Affairs Yulva Johansson said in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, “at the moment, negotiations are already underway with Tunisia and Libya”. The only problem is that such agreements can be used by third states to blackmail the EU. This, in particular, is confirmed by the example of Turkey. This is evidenced by the recent situation with the influx of Moroccan refugees who illegally entered the territory of the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. According to the Spanish Ministry of the Interior, about 6,000 migrants arrived in the territory in just a few days.
Such a sharp influx of illegal immigrants was caused by the actions of the Moroccan government: it, de facto, allowed its citizens to illegally leave the territory of the North African kingdom. The reason for this decision was the presence in Spain of the head of the Popular Front POLISARIO (Front for the Liberation of Segiet el Hamra and Rio de Oro), opposing the Kingdom of Morocco in the struggle for the independence of Western Sahara. The government of the country, enraged by the stay of the leader of the militant organization Brahim Gali on treatment in a European state, resorted to outright blackmail, forcing Spain, by opening its external borders, to make concessions. Discussing the situation around the Spanish exclave, European Commissioner Margarit Shinas said that “the EU will not allow itself to be intimidated”. In fact, shortly after the incident, Spain launched legal proceedings against Gali, accusing him of rape and a number of other crimes.
Official Rabat is well aware of the trump card at his disposal. In 2019, Morocco took full responsibility for providing border protection as well as patrolling the Strait of Gibraltar. The number of migrants arriving in Spain decreased by 50% over the next year.
In addition to an instrument of political pressure, the kingdom receives significant financial support: over the past two years, the EU and Spain have funded Morocco in an amount exceeding 200 million euros.
Unlike Morocco, where the political situation is relatively stable, Libya, with which the EU is currently negotiating, continues to be in a political crisis. The elections scheduled for December can stabilize the internal situation, however, with a high degree of probability, they will not lead to the disappearance of the entire spectrum of contradictions. As a result, the planned agreement with the EU may become an instrument of pressure on the European Union, capable of providing an advantageous solution to the difficulties that the new government will face in Tripoli. In 2017, Italy has already entered into an agreement with both parties to the conflict, pledging to provide substantial material assistance for the actions of the Libyan Coast Guard.
As for Tunisia, the situation in the country in terms of control over migration flows is much more favorable for the European Union. Unlike other North African states, Tunisia skillfully restrains its own land borders from penetrating into its territory by immigrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and Bangladesh. The bulk of the migrants arriving in Sicily from Tunisia are citizens of the country itself: young Tunisians go to Europe to work because of the desperate economic situation. The combination of the above facts allows the government to insist on the inclusion of provisions on the provision of financial assistance in the planned agreement.
The complexity of the current situation for the EU is aggravated by the absence of an agreement with Turkey: the previous one has already expired, and the conclusion of a new one will become possible after the completion of negotiations. It is obvious that Europe cannot do without the help of Recep Erdogan. As a result, political concessions, which can cost Brussels prohibitively, cannot be dispensed with.
Daniil Vinogradov, EADaily