The lifting of US sanctions exceptions against Iran is part of a large campaign of pressure on Tehran, especially in anticipation of the US presidential election, but the Iranian leadership is unlikely to take sharp retaliatory steps and declare its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for the Iranian Nuclear Program, at least least until the US presidential election, the results of which everyone is waiting for, expert Andrei Baklitsky told the reporters.
Earlier, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States ceases all exceptions to the sanctions for the Iranian peaceful atom, not counting the 1st unit of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. This is one of the latest concessions introduced against Iran under the 2015 nuclear deal. Washington gave two months to complete work on Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, which would subsequently be subject to sanctions.
Baklitsky noted that with regard to the reprofiling of the reactor in Arak, it is difficult to say how the return of sanctions on work will affect, because “even before the talk about the return of sanctions began, the Iranians complained that the work was going on very slowly, that the Chinese were reinsured, in which case nothing happened to them”.
“Everyone is waiting for November and waiting for the elections to take place in America and, possibly, the administration will change. If the Democrats come to power, everything can be restored quite quickly if President Donald Trump is re-elected, then, of course, it’s hard to imagine that the JCPOA will last another four years. Therefore, American actions now are increasing pressure, partly before the elections, partly because none of the previous worked especially well”, – the expert believes.
At the same time, he recalled that the United States in December announced that it would lift the exemption from sanctions on a nuclear facility in Iranian Fordo, then the Bushehr nuclear power plant project was mentioned, and Russia should have stopped cooperation, but nothing of the kind happened.
In general, he said, it is difficult to predict how the measures announced by Washington will work now.
“I think it will depend on many things, including relations between the US and China. The whole situation could be another reason, say, for adding some Chinese companies to black lists and, probably, it will be even less connected with Iran is approaching the US presidential election, now the topic has come up with the lifting of the arms embargo on Iran and closer to September, Americans may try to completely destroy the JCPOA by launching a mechanism to return sanctions to the UN Security Council”, – the expert believes.
“This is all part of a big campaign of pressure. And if it does not lead to anything, at least it will show the Americans that Trump continues to fight with Iran, that this whole campaign was not in vain”, – Baklitsky said.