Now the question is how the US President will react, torn between the inability to surrender and the new Middle East war, which he vowed to avoid, but seems to have failed.
If neither side retreats, America may be on the verge of its first hot war with revolutionary Iran after 40 boiling years of proxy conflicts, fierce rhetoric and brief diplomatic thaws.
Another scenario is a retreat from confrontation, but such a step will not be able to relieve tension. It is likely that Iran will seek to oust the United States from the region, and Washington will double the political, economic and diplomatic pressure on Tehran.
If the war breaks out, it will happen as a result of one of Trump’s personal decisions. It will become the product of the menacing style of his America First, a policy in which the president acts instinctively, not strategically. The Trump administration says its policy of “maximum pressure” and punishment for economic wars aims to force Iran to return to nuclear talks and end its regional disobedience.
Obviously, Trump now has two options. First, he can fulfill his own threats and take another step towards escalating. In this scenario, it seems inevitable that the United States will aim to seize Iranian territories. The Islamic Republic may dictate another step towards a full-scale war.
“If Iran does something that should not be done, it will suffer the consequences, and very much”, – the President told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday.
Esper, in turn, said that they “were not going to start a war with Iran, but are ready to end it”.
Much will depend on how the United States estimates Iran’s attacks on Al-Assad airbase west of Baghdad and Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq.
Trump could accept Iran’s game as his measured response to the Soleimani murder and curb the wrath of the US military. Although Tehran fired directly at American troops, it could take steps that were more likely to lead to massive American casualties.
But Trump never turns his other cheek. His mantra is as follows: when you are attacked, hit harder – that is a philosophy that seems to have served as the basis for a stunning shot at Soleimani, which surprised even some members of his own administration.
“Trump has already set the standard that he is going to deliver a massive retaliatory strike. If he does not, I think he will make himself surrendered”, – a source who recently spoke with the president told CNN.