The liquidation of General Kassem Suleimani, commander of the Kods special forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the main organizer and head of Iran’s military-political expansion outside this country, in response to attacks by local Shiites at the US embassy in Baghdad, even if you do not mention the death of high-ranking officials of Hezbollah along with him, President Trump’s unprecedented move, which his likely rival on behalf of the Democrats, Biden, did not accidentally compare thrown into a powder keg of dynamite.
Trump sharply raised rates in the presidential race, eliminating not a pensioner Bin-Laden like Obama, but a person of real significance, possessing colossal military-sabotage resources, openly hostile to the United States and dangerous to the extreme. Did he realize that he was starting a war with Iran? Yes maybe. And that means that he takes a risk that America has not taken since the days of Bush. Or maybe not. But Bush, when starting the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, did not understand. Neither the American intelligence community, nor the Pentagon, nor even the Department of State is competent. With country studies there is bad. And when did American professional presidents listen? There now, as we had, in the USSR, in the Politburo in the 80s. Trump, like the American version of Gorbachev, is funny. But everything can be.
Iran cannot answer. The answer may be different. Firstly, it can hit Israel. This is generally a standard theme for Iranians. They assured themselves that either the Zionists governed the States, or the States of Israel, so “hit the Jews so that Americans are afraid” is the standard formula of local ideology. For this they have bridgeheads saturated with missiles in Lebanon and Gaza, and there are enough militants. Yes, and there is experience. It’s another matter whether Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who have experience of wars with Israel for Iranian interests and understand how this will end, want to, especially given Netanyahu’s election problems that the war can help him solve, risk everything. The benefit will be a retaliatory strike by the Israelis not only against them, but also against the Iranians – directly. And in the event of losses in the civilian population of Israel – and in Iran as such. The second option is to strike at the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia. And if seriously flared up, then the Emirates. Although the latter is unlikely. The port of Dubai is important for the transit of goods to Iran. But the Saudi oil industry is under great threat. Fortunately, US interests there are enormous. However, the desalination plants of the kingdom, which are not really protected from missile attacks, can be attacked at any time when a decision on this is made in Tehran. And if you can live without oil, then without water … The third direction of a possible blow: the straits. Bab el-Mandeb (from Yemen) and Hormuz (the latter – in the event of a major war). More precisely, the ships traveling along them are primarily American. And finally, the territory of the United States itself, the US military abroad (which is now a legitimate goal for Iran) and American interests around the world, including corporate offices, factories and diplomatic missions. The first echelon of threats is Afghanistan and Iraq. The second is Syria and Lebanon. The third is the rest of the world, including Latin America, Africa, South and Southeast Asia, where the Iranians have powerful residencies. As in the 90s with Argentina, where the Iranians blew up the Israeli embassy and cultural center. And finally, there is the USA itself, where Iran and its residency are all right. Although a strike against the United States means a retaliatory strike against Iran, as was the result of the 9/11 attack with those countries that Bush declared guilty of this. So Tehran is sure to save this trump card until Washington attacks Iran’s territory itself. And here already “September 11th” will be remembered as a good old past.
States will not attack Iran in Europe and the Far East: relations with Europeans, Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul are more important to him. But you can say goodbye to nuclear non-proliferation right now. Whether Iran will announce it or not, it will begin to make the A-bomb with tenfold energy. Moreover, Trump left the nuclear deal, so he will be to blame for everything. Again, in the future elections, both parliamentary and presidential, in Iran the victory of the ultra-conservatives is guaranteed. And those who are now going to oppose the regime because of rising gas prices or for any other reason can only regret it. And finally, the price of oil once again has every chance of skyrocketing. What is unlikely to concern the domestic leadership of the economic bloc, taking into account the budget binding to it. And the fact that the States will be busy with Iran is not excluded, it will distract them from Russia, China and all other objects of vigilant care of the American Congress on the preventive elimination of competitors. Although the current situation entails so many risks for everyone that it will not add happiness to the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense. But our Americans have been warned so many times that it only remains, following an ancient Chinese proverb, sitting on the side of a mountain to watch two tigers fight in the valley.
And finally: Trump made the decision to destroy Suleimani? Most likely, Trump personally. His level. Putin certainly does not command them and does not pretend to be. Petrov, Bashirov and other legendary figures from Russian folklore, like the Serpent Gorynych, Koshchei, Yaga and Cheburashka, too. So would they all not go with their impending problems, from which we can only distance ourselves? Fortunately, Suleymani, we were not a matchmaker, not a brother and not an old friend. Situational partner in Syria. No more. And very problematic with his perpetual attempts to prepare another bridgehead in Syria for a strike against Israel and the retaliatory operations of the Israelis against the Iranians in Syria. So it will be as it will and will lead to what it will lead to. It definitely won’t be boring. Big fight ahead. Big blood. And big changes. Trump made his move. The answer options are clear. Which one is used, no one knows. The game is on, raising bets.
Evgeny Satanovsky