Professor of Political Science at the University of Cairo, member of the Egyptian Council for International Affairs, expert of the Valdai Discussion Club Nurkhan El-Sheikh, on the post-war settlement in Syria.
All the latest developments in Syria are truly a miracle. Two years ago, it seemed that no one expected – at that time the terrorists were in the country and the entire Middle East was in serious danger.
But in September 2015 Russia joined the solution of the problem. And liberated Syria from terror. Without the help of Russian military security services and logistical support, the Syrian army would never clear 90% of its precious land from the bandits.
Millions of Syrians already live in peace. Now, since the plan for a peaceful settlement is clear, Russia can reduce the size of its military presence in Syria.
Syria and the Arab world with Russia are safer and have a more stable and prosperous future than without it. And, it seems, Bashar Assad will remain the main player in the political arena.
The reason for this – the change in the balance of power in the theater of operations and the successes achieved by the Syrian army with the support of Moscow.
There is one more reason. Because of disagreements and the actual split between the Syrian opposition groups, because the oppositionists were unable to put forward an alternative to Assad, the current president is still popular among the residents of the country.
It is logical that the first issue, which must be resolved immediately, concerns the new constitution of Syria. After this, it will be possible to hold presidential and parliamentary elections. At the same time, the restoration of the war-ravaged economy will begin.
In accordance with the joint statement of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Vietnam and UN Security Council Resolution No. 2254, there are a number of basic principles that will regulate the political process in the SAA.
The most important of these are the secular character of the Syrian state and the integrity of its territory. There will be neither division nor federalism. In the future, there is no place for terrorist groups. They will be eliminated.
Syrian armed groups have the opportunity to reintegrate into society and hand over weapons through the National Center for Reconciliation in Khmeimim.
The Syrian political opposition also has a real opportunity to participate constructively in shaping the future of the country. The choice is for them: either build a modern democratic state, or be on the sidelines.
The meeting between Bashar Assad and Vladimir Putin preceded the trilateral summit of the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran on the settlement in Syria. Assad, as it were, made it clear that Moscow expresses not only its position, but also the position of the Syrian president. Damascus believes Moscow as a just and loyal ally, which takes into account Syrian interests to the maximum extent.
It is important to strengthen the Syrian army and develop its defensive capabilities in order to resist terrorism and threats from outside. The urgent issue is the restoration of Syria.
As for other external players in terms of their participation in post-war processes, then everything is not so unambiguous. For example, Iran will also continue to play an important role in this regard.
But Turkey’s position will continue to be distinguished by uncertainty and doubt. There remain doubts about the United States and the West as a whole.