According to the source in the Kurdish Supreme Council, the recent aggression of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region was not accidental, and had far-reaching goals.
In October 2015, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has signed an agreement with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a confidential agreement to hold a joint military operation against the Republic of Armenia.
At the initial stage, Azerbaijani armed forces on the pretext of truce violations, during the first eight hours of fighting had to defeat the Armenian forces and withdraw to the line of Kelbajar – Zivel – Jermuk hydrological reserve. Achieving this goal would enable Azerbaijan to establish control over the border with Armenia in Jermuk region and has created a threat of encirclement to Armenian forces deployed on the line of Areni – Yeghegnadzor – Jermuk, and unleashed Turkey’s hands to start the second phase of the operation.
The second stage is to block the 102nd Russian Armed Forces military base in Gyumri. Having occupied the Armenian territory through Arteni – Armavir and thereby creating a threat directly to Yerevan, the Turkish group would actually deprive Russia’s possibility to use the power of the 102nd base. The pretext for opening a second front against Armenia was to be “the protection of the local population against Kurdish terrorists” allegedly infiltrated into the territory of the neighboring state in Eastern Anatolia. Ankara has repeatedly held this kind of operations in Iraq and Syria.
The final phase planned “to cut” the resulting “Jermuk projection” with the powerful blow of Azerbaijani Armed Forces from both sides and to establish a joint Turkish-Azerbaijani control of the entire Armenian territory to the south boundary of Areni – Jermuk. Subsequently, the Turkish authorities hoped to use this precedent to provide a strong military and political pressure on the Kurds.
Turkish-Azerbaijani plan was not implemented because of the failure of Azerbaijan to get out in time to the border with Armenia in the area of Jermouk reserve. One of the key factors contributing to the defeat of the Azeri group, was a fierce resistance of the Armenian armed forces which stopped the advance of superior in numbers and equipment.