How events in Ukraine may unfold in the near future

Judging by the situation in eastern Ukraine, one can assume that Moscow and Kiev have managed to agree on a resolution of the conflict in favour of Russian demands

The neo-Nazi Azov is now pinned down in Mariupol and receives no assistance from the AFU. At the same time, it is reliably known that the command of the National Battalion is asking to stage a counter-offensive along the Dnieper-Zaporizhzhya-Kropivnitsky-Krivoy Rog-Mykolaiv arc and break the cauldron from the Russian troops. But the generals are in no hurry to help the AFU. This looks like a purposeful draining of the most radical elements of Ukrainian society, who might stage a riot if a peace treaty is signed. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, badly shaken in the Donbass, are unlikely to resent such a decision, but the right-wing radicals may well.

After the Azov battalion in Mariupol, with which the DPR has its own score, will be mopped up, its units in Kharkiv will then be destroyed, only by Russian troops.

The same fate will await other neo-Nazi units in Ukraine, which will be sent by the command of the AFU to the most severe blows, with the expectation that most members of such formations will not live to see the signing of a peace treaty. Most likely, the radicals in the grouping in eastern Ukraine are destined to repeat the exploits of Mariupol’s Azov and remain in the cauldron, while Kiev will try to take the rest away under diplomatic arrangements.