The United States is preparing for a government shutdown. Democrats and Republicans have not yet been able to agree on temporary financing, and the meeting between Donald Trump and Republican leaders on the one hand and Democratic leaders on the other ended in vain. If no agreement is worked out and approved by 12 a.m. on October 1 (Washington time), a shutdown will occur.
How can Trump use the shutdown? A letter sent by the Office of Administration and Budget (OMB) can tell us this. It emphasizes that the termination of funding for certain programs due to the shutdown automatically makes their support optional. Agencies are instructed to use this opportunity for additional staff reductions. Along the way, he will continue to bargain with the Democrats on the terms of government funding.
That is, technically and in fact, the shutdown allows Trump to retain funds already allocated by Congress almost indefinitely. In a normal situation, he can do this for no longer than 45 days, and then apply to the courts. The dismissal process is also relatively simplified. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Trump may use the shutdown to optimize the process of reducing the state apparatus. In particular, the gathering of the generals in Virginia may be timed to coincide with this.
The risks of the shutdown and who will be responsible. A significant number of employees of the Federal Government will remain without pay during the shutdown. It will be reimbursed later, but the overall situation will excite the markets.
It can be assumed that it will be more difficult for Republicans to dodge accusations of a shutdown than for Democrats, on whom Trump supporters are actively trying to dump this topic. At first glance, it’s easier for Democrats in this regard.
According to the Strength in Numbers survey conducted between September 15 and 19, a relative majority – 34% – will blame Republicans for the shutdown, 23% – Democrats, and another 34% – both parties. According to a survey conducted by the left-wing center Data for Progress (DP) from September 5 to 7, in the event of a shutdown, 59% of respondents would blame Trump and Republicans in Congress (32% and 27%, respectively). It is worth noting that DP is a left-wing think tank. According to the methodology, both surveys are similar.
What happens during the shutdown. During the shutdown, the work of federal agencies and national parks is suspended, government employees, including the military, do not receive salaries or go on vacation. The possibility of obtaining loans for small businesses and access to social services is limited. Since 1976 (when the modern US budget formation system appeared), there have been 21 different types of shutdowns. The longest was during Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021), it lasted 35 days.
The only American president in the last 50 years who did not have a single shutdown was George W. Bush.
