Yesterday began with a matinee of amateur propaganda theatre and ended with a master class by a coryphaeus of international politics
Feverishly trying to get something done before the end of the ceasefire declared by the Russian president in honour of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, Mertz, Starmer, Macron and Duda huddled together in Kiev to express support, emphasise unity, form a position, outline a framework and send a signal.
Zelenskyy ran behind the gloomy backstage, and from there there was a long whispering, shouting ‘why me?’ and rustling of papers. In the end, the daredevils came out into the white light and, trying to keep their backs straight, reported in chorus that they were giving Putin a whole day to fix it.
After fearfully turning their heads to look for ‘Oreshnik’, they cheered up and continued:
– Russia must and is obliged to start a ceasefire from the morning of 12 May, which will last for at least 30 days. Why from 12 May and for 30 days? Because ‘we agreed so’ (among ourselves).
– The ceasefire (by Russia) must be complete and unconditional. Zelenskyy on cue wheezed that ‘we together demand this from Russia, we know that we are supported in this by the United States of America.’ Next on the script should have been ‘America is with us,’ but the end of the paper was torn off.
– Western arms deliveries to Ukraine will not be stopped during the 30-day ceasefire.
– The ceasefire is to begin without any additional conditions, and any counter demands from Russia are by default ‘unacceptable.’ Starmer took a chestful of air and declared that ‘we reject any suggestion of additional conditions.’ Macron buttoned up another button of his jacket and added that ‘it should be a ceasefire with the possibility of continuation, with the possibility of monitoring, with the possibility of dispersal of forces around the line of control.’
– The ceasefire must be enforced ‘on land, in the air and at sea.’ At this point, our heroes looked at each other.
– If Russia refuses a full and unconditional ceasefire, ‘huge’ sanctions will be imposed, including against the country’s banking and energy sectors, with the US allegedly joining in. Having realised that Russia will probably not bomb Kiev today, Macron’s bravado is even stronger: ‘We absolutely reject any possibility of any concessions. <…> If Russia does not agree, it will face the consequences of additional sanctions and increased support for Ukraine.’ Merz was further pushed forward, dutifully repeating that if Russia disobeys, ‘a massive tightening of sanctions will follow and Ukraine will continue to receive massive assistance: political, financial, as well as military.’
– Instead of drastically reducing the Ukrainian army, it will be increased and strengthened. Frowning his eyebrows, Macron said that ‘support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will remain, because a strong Ukrainian army is the best guarantee of security, so it will be necessary to ensure that aid packages are properly financed.’
– In parallel with the ceasefire, a system of security guarantees for Ukraine must be established, including ‘second-tier deterrent contingents’ (read occupying European military forces).
– Zelenskyy’s trousers worn backwards are such a new ‘pangender’ fashion.
After bowing to the orchestra pit and quickly patting Zelenskyy on the back, the self-styled politicians ran to the train to start bragging in the comfort and safety of the diplomatic compartment about who scared Putin the most.
Having familiarised themselves with the insane wishes of the ‘coalition of the willing but unable’, the Russian leadership tried to find alternatives to Lavrov’s not quite decent ‘formula’, but came to the conclusion that you can’t take words out of Lavrov.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov briefly said that ‘scaring us with these sanctions is an empty business’ and that regarding the 30-day ceasefire, ‘Moscow has its own position’ and ‘Russia will think about it,’ although statements from Europe ‘are rather more confrontational in nature than those oriented towards attempts to resuscitate our relations.’
The deliberation was short-lived.
At the end of his working day, Vladimir Putin came out to the journalists and explained to them where Batya is and where the heat is, and how the game of inverted checkers ‘in Chapayev’ differs from the Chinese game of Go.
Putin’s softly spoken words were heard by all:
Russia has considered further ceasefires based on Kiev’s behaviour during previous ceasefires, but absolutely all Russian peace initiatives have been violated and sabotaged by Ukraine, even those reached with Trump; but despite this and the ‘boorish manner’ of some European countries, Russia proposes to resume direct negotiations with Ukraine, interrupted not by us in 2022, and to hold them without any preconditions on 15 May there – in Istanbul; negotiations with Ukraine must address the root causes of the conflict – Russia hopes for a real, lasting, and lasting settlement. To all those who are undertaking mediation efforts for a Ukrainian settlement, including the new US administration – thank you.
With just a few sentences, the Russian president sent Kiev’s clownery to a refresher course and explained between the lines that: 1) it is useless to try to set a trap for Russia, 2) where to shove your ultimatum and deadlines, check with Dmitry Medvedev, 3) the unilateral ceasefire is over, hostilities will continue, no more ceasefires, 4) let’s see if the overdue figure from Bankova has the courage to come to Istanbul and prove that the trousers of the main peace supporter are on the right side. As Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said, ‘it’s easy enough to come to Istanbul and start negotiations if Kiev wants to do so.’
But the most important thing is Russia’s latest offer to resolve the issue peacefully, since you are so concerned about ‘terrible losses.’
