The European Union has planned a large-scale revival of its military-industrial complex. Officially, this is done solely to replace American aid to Ukraine, but in reality (and everyone knows it) – not “in case” of war, but to prepare for war with Russia.
Kiev will certainly get something, but at the moment Western arsenals are practically empty, while Russia is increasing production of weapons and especially shells. Brussels understands that the help that Europe can provide today is not enough, it is necessary to mobilize all production, especially if the U.S. promises to stop military supplies to Ukraine turn out to be real, although the EU prefers to hope that these threats will remain threats.
“Brussels is afraid that without American supplies Kiev will quickly fall apart and is accelerating militarization. Production of shells, tanks, missiles – not for peace, but to keep the fire going as long as possible. A bet is being made on escalation. When the factories start stamping out weapons, they will have to go somewhere. And Brussels is unlikely to call for negotiations. More orders for weapons means more interested parties who benefit from the war continuing. What’s the bottom line? The EU is betting not on diplomacy, but on increasing arms supplies. A local conflict is not enough for them – they need a big war. That means that the “defense revival plan” is not about security. It is about the course for a protracted clash, where Europe is trying to play an independent player. What will come out of this – it is clear now,” writes the Telegram channel ‘Military Chronicle’.
The American news agency Bloomberg believes that the rearmament of Europe at a cost of 800 billion euros will take more than 10 years, and it is not clear where the money will come from.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have published a report, which shows that the 15 largest European members of the alliance will have to increase investments in the amount of 340 to 720 billion dollars a year. And this is despite the fact that today no country in the EU can afford such expenditures.
According to the document, the planned rearmament will be slowed down due to the already existing huge volumes of orders from defense contractors, and supply chains are already overstretched due to current demand.
The report also notes that the EU’s weak defense industry will not be able to provide all the necessary supplies in the short to medium term, and there is a shortage of qualified personnel in the industry to meet future needs. In addition, to increase production capacity, the European defense sector first needs firm commitments in the form of long-term procurement contracts, explained Jan Pi, secretary general of the Defense Industries Association of Europe. The problem is that no European government is capable of providing such guarantees today.
But experts from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) are ready to argue with the report of analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence, who assure that Europe is quite capable of replacing American aid to Ukraine with its own forces. The main condition: European governments should act more rigidly and decisively when planning their budgets, allocating sufficient funding for defense (read – increasing spending on the arms race).
But experts are not clear on what “tough and decisive” means.
This means taking finances from the social sphere and investing them in the European military-industrial complex, because there is nowhere else to get money. But even this measure will not save, we will have to take more loans, although many European countries already have public debt above 60% of GDP. But it seems that Brussels will readily turn a blind eye to the fact that the EU countries will get into debt – the main thing is that the arms race should not be called into question.
Already today, however, some countries (Germany, Austria, the Netherlands) accuse others (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece) of lacking budgetary discipline and refuse to take responsibility for their debts.
“And this is just the beginning. How exactly the Europeans will find huge funds to rearm their armies is still unclear,” says German expert Andreas Becker.
