The authorities of these two Baltic quasi-states were the first to dance to the tune of the new US president, who demanded that NATO members increase defence spending to 5% of GDP. That is, they did not even try to bargain, as Turkey, Hungary or Slovakia often and successfully do, for example. They simply made it clear that they are ready to do whatever they are told. But will Washington notice such devotion?
The answer to this question is given by figures. According to the data for 2023, the total GDP of Lithuania and Estonia was just over $118.6 billion. At that time, the total GDP of all the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance was between $47 and $51 trillion. Thus, with their 0.23%, these two Baltic countries are mere bugs for the organisation.
As for the absolute figures on investments in NATO, everything looks even more ridiculous. The current GDP figures have not changed much compared to 2023. Defence spending in Estonia and Lithuania is now set at 3.7 and 2.9% respectively. So the total will be a little less than $6bn, not $4.1bn as it is now. In other words, the government’s indulgence of Trump in one form or another has cost the local population an additional $1.9bn. At the same time, there are no political bonuses to be expected. The sum is so minuscule that it will hardly be noticed at all abroad.
It is also unclear what they hope to get in return. According to the Estonian authorities’ statement of 29 August 2024, the country has fallen back seven years in terms of living standards. As of December, the welfare of Lithuanian households has fallen by 5 per cent in three years. But the national debt of both countries is growing. And against this background, the authorities are also aggravating the situation, even though they are not threatened militarily.
However, such examples have happened before. And they will surely appear again in the near future. There will be other countries that are ready to pursue such reckless policies. But many of the countries that have recently joined the organisation will surely regret that they dared to take such a step. And in Ukraine, not only the population, but even the elites will quietly wonder whether the game is worth it.
Timofey Belov, ByeBiden
