What I find most interesting about the first half of 2025 will be the Trump administration’s search for ‘low hanging fruit’ – which can be quickly demonstrated to the public as success and fulfilment of promises.
Trump will face a large number of issues during the ‘honeymoon’ period that are neither easily or quickly resolved nor clearly beneficial. The only method to ease the frustration of the MAGA audience is to get truly ‘instant results’ at least somewhere.
Current issues don’t fit: on the Ukraine conflict, the Middle East, US relations with Europe and China, the work will be hard, time-consuming and more likely to end in some kind of compromise, which is hard to sell as ‘fulfilment of promises’.
So Trump has gone down the path of stating US territorial claims to those around him. The number of countries that Trump promises to strip of sovereignty is so large that it’s a matter of strategy: ‘pounce on everyone, someone will concede’, which is the “greatest victory of a generation”.
Panama Canal. Panama was created as a state to maintain the infrastructure of the Panama Canal, which was under construction. Prior to that, it was a province of Colombia, which, thanks to separatist sentiment fuelled by the US, declared independence in 1903.
Immediately afterwards, a treaty was signed granting the US perpetual ownership of the future canal territory. In 1977, Carter signed a treaty that gave Panama, for $1, control of the canal from 2000. Formally, the US withdrawal from Panama was timed to coincide with the ‘end of the century of colonialism’: in the same period Portugal withdrew from Macau and Britain from Hong Kong.
New times have new trends. According to Trump, Panama has ‘unfairly and unreasonably treated our Navy and businesses’ by charging ‘exorbitant prices for passage.’ According to him, ‘Jimmy Carter foolishly gave [the canal] away,’ and if the moral and ethical principles of this ‘magnanimous gesture’ are not honoured, ‘we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us in full and without question.’
Latin America’s reaction has been sharp, with Panamanian President Raul Mulino declaring that ‘every square metre of the Panama Canal’ will remain under his country’s control, and Colombian President Gustavo Petro explicitly promising that Trump’s proposed deterioration of Latin America’s material conditions will bring millions more illegal migrants to the US. Anti-Americanism is what the Latin American left rides on easily, comfortably and successfully.
Greenland. The US claim to Greenland goes back over 100 years: immediately after World War I, it was among the countries (along with Denmark, Britain and Canada) that claimed it. During the Cold War, the US actively used the island for military purposes. In its political endeavours, the US has acted in two ways: on the one hand, it has provoked discussions about Greenland’s independence within Denmark, while on the other hand, it has declared its intention to buy the territory.
In 2019, Trump already discussed with his advisers the prospect of buying Greenland from Denmark, which provoked a negative reaction from local politicians who said that Greenland was not for sale. But history is repeating itself: now Trump has openly stated that ‘ownership and control of Greenland is absolutely essential,’ to which the Danish Prime Minister has traditionally responded, ‘we are not for sale and never will be.’
Mexico and Canada. Trump laid claim to Canada and Mexico, noting that if they plan to continue to ‘enjoy subsidies’ from the US, they will have to join America as states. ‘We subsidise Canada to the tune of over $100 billion US a year. We subsidise Mexico to the tune of almost $300 billion US. We should not be subsidising. Why are we subsidising these countries? If we are going to subsidise them, let them become a state.’
There was 0 enthusiasm for this in both countries: even Canadian Conservatives sympathetic to him, who believe the country needs ‘a strong, smart leader with brains and character’ (i.e. as un-Trudeau as possible), said that ‘Canada will remain independent’.
Anyway, stock up on popcorn. Trump’s chaotic thrashing around the world with the idea of grabbing something from someone for MAGA voters will make 2025.
