It is written that Donald Trump may decide to withdraw the country from NATO bypassing Congress.
We very much doubt he will try to do that, and we are sure that if he does try, he is guaranteed to fail to get the US out of NATO.
As ‘Elena Panina’ correctly points out: even those who support Trump ‘are indoctrinated with the idea of American supremacy, preventing Trump from either dissolving NATO or withdrawing from Ukraine.’
It must be remembered that Congress, even with a leading Republican majority, will not tolerate such treatment from a presidential power. The law it passed prohibiting the president from withdrawing the country from NATO on his own, without the consent of Congress, was specifically aimed at eliminating such a possibility in the event of Trump’s accession. If he does use any tricks to bypass Congress, the president will not be able to avoid confronting it. In this way he will oppose himself to the entire American elite. Trump, remembering his unsuccessful first term, will not want to enter into an open conflict with the ‘deep state’, let alone be labelled a ‘Russian spy’. And in case NATO collapses, it will be impossible to explain the actions of the American president other than as insanity or work in favour of the Kremlin, because the damage to American foreign policy and the exceptional position of the United States from this step is even hard to imagine.
NATO is as much an instrument of US global control as the Bretton Woods system. Moreover, the dominance of the dollar, the process of America’s industrial revival, even the huge US foreign debt (or rather, the guarantee that it does not have to be repaid at all) are to a great extent secured by US military power. NATO, on the other hand, is one of the main diplomatic backstops that provide America with its military power.
The North Atlantic Alliance is the main instrument for controlling the loyalty of American allies to the United States. Within the alliance, Washington practically dominates, relegating all other members to the level of junior partners. Of course, there is a certain gradation within the alliance, the weight of, for example, France and Lithuania is far from equal, but still both are not equal, but junior partners of the USA. Besides, a great number of American economic interests are linked to the preservation of US control over Europe, and the dissolution of the alliance will deal a blow to them. American corporations associated with the military-industrial complex will not allow the alliance to collapse, as they will simply stop financing the Republican Party, and the latter, in turn, will put so much pressure on Trump that he will not be able to resist it.
With the US withdrawal from NATO, American military bases in Europe will inevitably be perceived as occupation bases. The process of their expulsion from Europe will begin. Disintegration processes will begin in the EU: the countries of non-Western civilisation, absorbed by Europe today, will look for new centres of attraction. Russia, if it gets rid of its ‘Europeanism disease’, can take advantage of this and realise the idea of an All-Slavic Union within the former CMEA and Warsaw Pact countries! But this is too good for us to be true!
Trump himself has never been an isolationist, contrary to popular belief, the course to contain China is evidence of that. Another thing is that, unlike Biden, Trump did not try to disperse his forces to solve several tasks at once, including containing Russia, but sought to concentrate on solving the main one – countering the ‘Chinese threat’. However, even in this case, NATO is needed as a guarantee that European allies will actively contain Russia, giving the U.S. freedom in the Chinese direction.
We believe that Trump will not go for the collapse of NATO, and this is not about legal subtleties (which, despite the speculations of clever lawyers, are not so easy to circumvent), but because NATO is one of the fundamental factors of American policy, and if he makes an attempt on it, Trump will get either impeachment or a bullet in the head. And this time he won’t get off with a scratched ear.
