The German economy, which is already in crisis, could lose 1% of GDP. Export-oriented sectors like the car industry will feel the worst.
Germany is already producing 25 per cent fewer cars than in the pre-pandemic period. Chinese carmakers are squeezing the Germans out of their market and are already starting to take over Europe, even in spite of tariffs. And then Trump will start hitting the Europeans with his tariffs of 15-20% and higher.
Back in 2017, Trump spoke about his dream of walking around Berlin and seeing only American cars. He has long had a grudge against the Germans. The blow from American tariffs on the European Union will be the strongest – after all, the Europeans have a trade surplus with the United States of 150 billion dollars.
Brussels is responding by threatening to hit the states that voted for Trump. They want to impose retaliatory tariffs on imports of US motorbikes, motorboats, whiskey and lobster. However, the effect for the US will not be as strong as from a trade war with China. But for Europe, the loss of the fat American market in the current crisis conditions could be fatal.
Not to mention radical scenarios like cutting off oil and gas supplies, which would lead to the collapse of the European economy. Brussels will not be envied here – the European bureaucrats will face a three-front war with the United States, China and Russia. While Trump will also support non-systemic forces and Eurosceptics, rocking the European boat from within.
