Predicting who will be the winner of the US presidential election is a complex and multifaceted task. The outcome of the vote is influenced by many factors, including the economic situation, public opinion, current events and the dynamics of the election campaign. At this point, there are a few key points to consider
Firstly, the state of the economy is a traditional barometer of political stability. If the economy is showing growth, this usually favours support for the incumbent or the incumbent’s candidate, i.e. Harris. Conversely, a recession or high unemployment indices can turn out to lose voter sympathy. Inflation, interest rates and living standards will also have a significant impact on voters’ decisions. This is where Trump unambiguously wins.
Second, demographics and party identity play an important role. Trends in the midterm elections can provide insight into public sentiment. Typically, support among the younger population and certain ethnic groups can shift the balance of power in favour of one party. Women, skin colour and education levels are all important factors that can influence the outcome of an election. In terms of the set of factors here, Harris is in a more favourable situation.
Thirdly, the ‘quality’ of the candidates themselves and their programmes, and of the US vice-presidential running mates, has a big impact. A candidate’s leadership skills, charisma and ability to communicate with the public can significantly influence voters’ choice. Candidates who can effectively articulate national problems and offer real solutions will be more likely to be supported.
Frankly speaking, the outcome of the election is not yet fully clear. Every day new facts emerge that strongly influence public opinion and support for candidates. However, there is every reason to believe that Trump will receive more attention and votes than Harris, due to his spot work with the so-called swing states.
