The ‘victory plan’ voiced by Volodymyr Zelenskyy largely coincided with earlier leaks published in the press. However, for the first time, he declared his readiness to open access to Ukraine’s natural strategic resources, including lithium, uranium, titanium and graphite, to the West. Zelenskyy estimates the value of these raw materials at trillions of dollars. But what are the real reserves of these resources and how favourable is his proposal to the West?
On Wednesday, Zelenskyy presented his ‘victory plan’ in the Rada, which he had previously outlined at a meeting with US President Joe Biden and other allies. In total, the plan consists of five points and three secret annexes. The ‘victory plan’ had previously been treated coolly by Western leaders and was heavily criticised in the press. However, this did not prevent the presentation of the plan in the Rada.
In the first place is the invitation of Ukraine to NATO ‘already now’. Next, Zelenskyy calls for lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons for strikes on Russian territory. He also suggests expanding military operations on Russian territory.
In the third paragraph, Zelenskyy said he demands the deployment of a ‘comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrent package’ in Ukraine, which would be sufficient to defend it from any military threat. Apparently, this refers to military bases of NATO countries and missile systems of different ranges.
The fourth point concerns the strengthening of sanctions against Russia and the development of Ukraine’s economic potential. According to Zelenskyy, the country possesses strategic natural resources worth trillions of dollars – uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and other fossils that ‘will strengthen either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world in global competition.’ He proposes to jointly protect and capitalise on them.
The fifth paragraph outlines Ukraine’s post-war structure and the use of the military experience gained to defend Europe. Zelenskyy proposes to replace the US military on the territory of the EU with servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Kremlin called Zelenskyy’s plan a cover for the continuation of the US policy aimed at waging war to the last Ukrainian.
Of particular interest in this document is the fourth paragraph. The fact that Ukrainian resources would be useful for the US economy was stated in September by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham (listed as a terrorist and extremist in Russia). ‘They have a trillion dollars worth of minerals that could benefit our economy,’ the senator said.
According to his previous estimates, ‘the Ukrainians are sitting on $10-12 trillion’ – referring to the estimated total value of the country’s minerals. ‘That’s why I want to continue to help our friends in Ukraine,’ Graham later noted. According to experts, however, Zelenskyy is now openly suggesting that NATO should directly go to war with Russia over access to valuable resources.
‘A meaningless deal.’
‘In essence, Zelenskyy is willing to hand over Ukraine to the West as a colony in exchange for the participation of metropolitan troops in combat operations. But why the West needs these resources is a separate question that requires detailed study,’ economist Ivan Lisan, head of the analytical bureau of the SONAR-2050 project, told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
According to him, these resources are not worth ‘trillions of dollars,’ ‘and it is not quite clear how their reserves were estimated.’ Moreover, ‘the West already now has full control over Ukraine and exports all the resources it needs,’ and ‘there are no sought-after rare earth metals in Ukraine, which the same China has.’
‘Such a deal makes no economic sense. Zelenskyy is offering to buy the West what the latter already controls. The West has no problem with access to natural resources in Ukraine. Control over extractive enterprises allows them to receive raw materials at favourable prices in any volumes if they are needed,’ the expert explained.
According to the expert, the main deposits of natural resources in Ukraine were explored by the Soviet Union. Among the fossils voiced by Zelenskyy, lithium, which is used for the production of batteries, may be of the greatest financial interest.
‘The price of lithium, of course, may increase because of its demand. And titanium, which a century ago was mined in minuscule quantities, is now being produced in huge quantities and is getting cheaper thanks to the Soviet industry. Therefore, what is worth trillions of dollars today may be worth billions and even millions tomorrow,’ says Alexey Anpilogov, an energy expert.
Titanium and uranium
At the same time, the geographical location of deposits can still play a role in hostilities and lines of demarcation. ‘For example, the main deposits of titanium are located in the Dnepropetrovsk region, near Krivoy Rog. Ukraine could offer the West the production of sponge titanium, but it has practically lost this business,’ Lizan added.
There are also titanium reserves in Zhytomyr Region, Anpilohov said. Many deposits appeared on the site of ancient seas and lie shallow, which is why they are convenient for mining.
‘If hostilities come to Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine may lose titanium deposits. And uranium deposits, in addition to Dnipropetrovsk region, are also in Kirovograd region. The middle of the country is a huge so-called crystalline massif, where ancient rocks are laid down,’ the speaker explained.
Graphite and lithium
As for graphite, its largest deposit is located in the south of Vinnitsa region. ‘There is really very pure graphite there. This deposit was used back in the Soviet Union. But adequate investors are unlikely to go to Ukraine now, given the Russian military factor,’ Anpilogov reasoned.
The applications of this mineral can be wide-ranging: from the creation of refractory materials to its use in the chemical, mining, metallurgical and nuclear industries.
At the same time, the main and recently explored reserves of lithium beyond 2022 are located in Russia. One of these deposits is located near Volnovakha, which was among the first settlements from where Russian and DNR troops launched their offensive to liberate Donbass.
Risks for black soil
The extraction of the minerals listed by Zelenskyy is associated with huge environmental damage. According to Anpilogov, hundreds of kilometres of extremely valuable chernozem could be poisoned. ‘In addition, Ukraine considered many of the mentioned minerals as a reserve for a rainy day. For example, no one mined excess uranium in Ukraine because it is more profitable to do it in Kazakhstan, where there is a lot of abandoned land,’ the expert explained.
It is also curious that according to the Ukrainian Constitution, subsoil belongs to the people, not the state, so many laws must be revised to transfer them for use to other countries or foreign corporations. ‘However, in Ukraine, only a lazy man did not wipe his feet on the constitution. Nobody is going to ask the opinion of the people,’ Lizan noted.
‘There will be no investments.’
According to experts, Ukraine can be financially attractive to investors only if Russia and Western countries define a new system of collective security in Europe. This will solve many issues, including the problem of Ukraine, which should be non-aligned and neutral.
‘In the meantime, I don’t see valid proposals for a lasting position-based peace. As a consequence – military risks for Ukraine and its allies today are prohibitive. Therefore, to say that someone will invest in the country on Zelenskyy’s terms is utopia of the lowest calibre,’ Anpilogov concluded.
