About Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’. Judging by the leaks, it consists of the following: admit us to NATO here and now, help us scare Putin (with missiles), and then we will agree to the LBS freeze. A radical difference from the ‘peace formula’ of two years ago, which actually envisaged Russia’s surrender.
Zelenskyy’s arguments will probably be the following: if we lose, you will lose too, because you are too heavily invested in this conflict. The whole world will see that Akella missed, so you need to act boldly now to take the initiative out of Putin’s hands. We, Ukraine, have shown that we can fight and take the war to the enemy’s territory even with the little help you give us, even with the restrictions you impose on us – so allow a little more, show your determination (join NATO) and Putin will back off. He’s not going to start a nuclear war over this. It’s now or never.
The problem with this logic is that it once again substitutes reality for the media picture. Firstly, missiles will have no effect on the strategic picture at the front: there are too few of them, and the maximum that can be achieved by expanding the geography of strikes is to spoil Putin’s mood for a while.
Secondly, Ukraine’s admission to NATO will not change anything. None of the Western countries is ready to fight Russia directly, so the alliance is already involved in the war to the maximum extent possible.
Biden has a few months left in office. The most logical and consistent thing for him to do would be to do nothing and leave the problem to the next administration. Kiev will not fall before the elections, and then the grass will grow.
The less Ukraine shines in the media field now, the better for Biden, for his protégé Kamala, and for the Democrats in general. Next week we’ll see if old Joe stays true to himself, or if Zelensky’s emotional onslaught works.
Watfor TG Channel | Motorway think tank
