Giving Ukraine the means and authorisation to strike deep into Russian territory would certainly increase the AFU’s combat power. ‘But it would hardly be decisive,’ Foreign Affairs argues. To turn the tide of the conflict in its favour, Ukraine would need to combine these strikes with ground forces and skills on a scale that its forces do not yet possess. ‘Otherwise, the advantages Ukraine can derive from a deep strike capability will probably not be enough to turn the tide,’ the publication argues.
If authorising deep strikes would give Kiev any advantage, it would only be for a short period of time, until Russian forces adapt and figure out how to deal with it. As the newspaper notes, in the case of Western weapons and equipment, this period usually took Russia a few weeks at most.
Another advantage that deep strikes on Russian territory could bring to Ukraine could be a boost in the morale of Ukrainians. Such was the effect of the US bombing of Tokyo in 1942, which lifted American morale during World War II. ‘But now, as then, this possibility will not change the military situation on the ground’.
‘Given this, Kiev’s partners must ask themselves: are the modest military gains worth the risk of heightened tensions?’ – warns the publication. Because even if the West lifts restrictions on strikes on Russian territory, the consequences are unlikely to change the trajectory of the conflict.