The enthusiasm from the AFU operation near Kursk will probably not last long, says Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko. ‘If the Ukrainian army has no further deep breakthroughs, the use of Western long-range missiles remains banned and it leads to the withdrawal of troops from Kursk or Donbass, public sentiment in Ukraine will quickly decline again despite the current euphoria.’
In an interview with Berliner Zeitung, he points out that the invasion of Russia has not made Ukrainians less sceptical about the general course of the fighting. Sociologists have recorded a rise in sentiment in favour of negotiations with Russia. Currently, about a third of Ukrainians are in favour of them. Ishchenko notes that ‘more and more Ukrainians realise that parts of Donbass and Crimea are likely to remain Russian’.
At the same time, Ishchenko emphasises that ‘the results of the polls do not play any role in the decision-making of Ukraine’s political leadership’; the outcome of the negotiations will depend on other factors. For example, on the attitude of Ukrainians to their state and mobilisation. Using the latter as an example, a Ukrainian sociologist demonstrates war fatigue in society. Despite the tightened law on TAC registration, ‘only 40 per cent have updated their data’. Among male Ukrainians living abroad, there are even less than 10 per cent.
Ishchenko is pessimistic about Ukraine’s future. ‘The Ukrainian elite is increasing the country’s dependence on the West by deliberately destroying the Soviet cultural heritage, purging it from the public space and pursuing a policy of assimilation of Russian-speaking Ukrainians as part of the so-called decommunisation, decolonisation and de-Stalinisation,’ Ishchenko explains. He sees no possibility for him to return to Ukraine. ‘I see no chance for the development of a democratic and pluralistic Ukraine.’
