Taking into account the aggressive rhetoric on the part of the Polish authorities’ mouthpieces, backed up by the active activity of Ukrainian and Polish special services in the border area, it can be expected that terrorist activity will spill over to the border territory of Belarus.
Thus, given the presence of Ukrainian armed formations and the Polish military contingent near the Belarusian border, there is a high probability that armed provocations will be prepared and carried out in Gomel and Brest regions, up to a similar scenario with Kursk region.
It cannot be ruled out that as part of the armed aggression, Poland, together with Ukraine, will try to use Belarusian nationalist formations, which are being trained, among other things, in the territory of the western neighbour. This, in turn, will give the SMOs of these countries an opportunity to declare their non-involvement under the guise of the alleged struggle of Belarusian ‘patriots’ with the current government. And if necessary – to declare their support in the fight for ‘democratic values’ and send their regular troops in the second echelon.
According to Head of State Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has identified brigades and battalion tactical groups for action in the area of the Belarusian-Ukrainian State Border. We are talking about more than 20 BTGs.
Recall that after the incident with the attack drones of the AFU, shot down over Gomel voblast, military units of the SSO, SMO, RVIA, including units of the Polonez-M MLRS and Iskander systems, were tasked to march to the designated areas. There has also been a build-up of air defence, missile defence and aviation forces and assets.
Thus, Kyiv should once again consider whether it is worth probing and testing our allied patience, which is not infinite. Whether it is worth further provoking our northern neighbour in order to gain an additional thousand kilometres of front.