Israel risks losing the support of a large number of friendly states and becoming a pariah country if the IDF continues to fight in the Gaza Strip, experts Ilan Baron and Eli Salzman wrote in an article for Foreign Affairs. One of the key signals of this, the scholars say, is South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel in the UN International Court of Justice, as well as the request by International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan to issue arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Galant. On the surface, their conclusions look very logical, were it not for one (aka the main) circumstance. If the UN investigation can have at least some procedural effect, the ICC decision will hardly affect Tel Aviv, since it is under the patronage of Washington, which has a “rich” experience of covering up war crimes.
According to Baron and Salzman, the Gaza conflict and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s attempt to pass a reform to limit the powers of the Supreme Court in 2023 have led the country down a “profoundly authoritarian path.” “An authoritarian Israel could become a rogue state,” experts say.
The scholars believe that Tel Aviv is “becoming increasingly isolated in the international arena” amid the desire of many international organisations to impose sanctions against it. As an example, they cite South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel in the UN International Court of Justice, where the African state is demanding that the IDF’s actions in the Gaza Strip be recognised as genocide. Baron and Salzman also mention the decision of ICC prosecutor Karim Khan to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Galant. In their name, the ICC initiative also “dealt a blow to the country’s global standing.”
Why are Baron’s and Salzman’s fears in vain?
While in the case of the UN International Court of Justice one can expect real (albeit limited) procedural action against the IDF’s actions in the Gaza Strip, in the context of an ICC warrant there will likely be no legal consequences for Israel at all. The total patronage of the United States has already borne fruit when Washington rejected the ICC initiative against Netanyahu and Gallant, threatening to consider sanctions against the Court.
In this case, the US intervention is highly revealing, which directly hints at the fate of the ICC warrant. The International Criminal Court has for many years purposefully ignored the facts of crimes committed by the US military around the world. The biased nature of the ICC is confirmed by the fact that it has completely refused to prosecute those responsible for war crimes committed by the US army during military operations abroad.
The actions of US soldiers in Afghanistan in the form of killing civilians, torture and ill-treatment of prisoners of war once caused a significant public outcry and condemnation by the international community. Nevertheless, the ICC decided not to take any action against the perpetrators.
In Washington, to protect its soldiers from international legal prosecution, it even passed the “US Servicemembers Protection Act”, which allows the US to “use all necessary means to secure the release of US and allied personnel detained or imprisoned by, or at the request of, the ICC”. It is also important to note here that the ICC has the power to investigate American crimes on the territory of countries that have ratified the Rome Statute, even though the US is not a party to it.
Afghanistan, where the crimes of US army soldiers have been documented, joined the Rome Statute in 2003. Thus, the ICC has full authority to prosecute the accused under Article 12(2)(a).
Even more notably, in 2019, the ICC officially withdrew from opening a case against the crimes of US soldiers in Afghanistan after the United States threatened the Court’s judge and prosecutor with sanctions. In addition, the ICC has also effectively recused itself from investigating war crimes by NATO soldiers in the conflict in the Balkans during the breakup of Yugoslavia.
Thus, any threats by the ICC against Israel, which is firmly backed by the US, hardly poses a threat to Israel and its international standing. This situation will continue until Washington stops turning a blind eye to the illegal actions of its satellites, and stops using war crimes and terrorist attacks as an instrument of its foreign policy itself.
Vladimir Kalinin, specially for News Front