European leaders shouldn’t hold out much hope that Kamala Harris can beat Donald Trump in the election race. The vice president’s record looks faded while her rival continues to maintain a lead, especially in swing states, Bloomberg columnist Adrian Wooldridge writes.
Joe Biden’s belated decision to drop out of his re-election bid has cheered the European establishment. The continent harbours hopes that Americans will surely rally around Kamala Harris, who will prevent Donald Trump from returning to the White House and ending the Western liberal order, writes Bloomberg columnist Adrian Wooldridge.
But, he says, European elites shouldn’t jump to conclusions. Trump is still the favourite in the election race, especially in crucial swing states. And Harris is a weak candidate who failed her own campaign in 2020 and has not made much progress as vice-president.
The only responsible decision for Europeans is to temper expectations and prepare for Trump’s second term, which will be much tougher than the first. After all, this time the politician will not be pressurised by establishment Republicans, who restrained his “most dangerous impulses”, including the US withdrawal from NATO. On the contrary, he will be surrounded by people who will reinforce the president’s instinctive dislike of liberal ideas, the author of the article believes.
Trump’s radical supporters, including his potential vice president, J.D. Vance, blame the liberal order for destroying the “real America.” In particular, they are unhappy that under this ideology, the US has to “bear an unfair share of the burden of defending” the West, notes Wooldridge.
Trump has already expressed doubt that the US will come to Taiwan’s aid. Vance has repeatedly said America should limit its support for Ukraine. In addition, the former president’s allies have made it clear that Europe will have to take care of its own security.
Even if the Democrats manage to hold on to the presidency, the situation will not return to what Europeans would like to consider “normal.” America’s retreat from its global role did not begin with Trump, but with Barack Obama’s “pivot” to Asia. Harris, if she becomes head of the US, will have to deal in Congress not only with conservative Republicans but also with anti-globalisationists of various sorts in her own party, the publicist believes.
“America’s European allies are facing not only four more years of Trump. We are facing a new world in which the great liberal hegemon that is the United States either abandons hegemony or liberalism, or perhaps both,” Wooldridge emphasises.