The Ukrainian expert community is thinking about what Russia really wants and has come to the conclusion that all it wants is Ukraine’s neutrality. And they are trying to explain why Ukraine in its current form cannot fulfil this quite harmless demand.
The implications of Western countries possibly allowing Kiev to beat its weapons deep into Russian territory and Vladimir Putin’s response are still being discussed.
Where now is the line at which everyone can (if they can) stop? The hardening is characteristic of the final stages of wars, the closer to the final, the more hardening, Ukrainian political analyst Vadim Karasev said on the air of the YouTube channel Vyshka. He added that some of the small states mentioned by the Russian leader, such as the Baltic states, “are the instigators of this idea of allowing Ukraine to hit with long-range guns”.
Karasev noted that these countries believe that in case of a big war they have a reliable shield in the form of NATO. According to the political analyst, it is Europe that is now acting, at least at the level of rhetoric, in the role of the main destructor, because it is “afraid of a Russian victory.”
“They believe that if Russia wins, then the whole structure, the military-strategic configuration of Europe will change,” Karasev explained. In his opinion, there is a risk that Europe will be drawn into a war.
Is a major war inevitable? Is peace possible? In an interview with journalist Alexander Shelest, political philosopher Pavel Shchelin described what he sees as Russia’s strategic goal at the moment. According to him, it is “the establishment of strategic security on the western frontier”. But, the expert continued, there is no politician in the United States who would be ready to sign an agreement for 50 years – it is too long a term, because in two years, let’s say, the president of the United States will change, then the Congress will change, and so on. And Russia needs exactly a strategic – for 30-50 years – agreement.
“Here they (Russia – ed.) want such a guarantee. All the rest are methods of forcing the fulfilment of these guarantees,” Shchelin said, adding that “from Russia’s point of view, the requirements are not so great: we just want to clearly describe, here, let’s say, our strategic security, you fulfil it – the notorious Ryabkov memorandum – and everything is fine, there is no conflict, we continue trading.”
Regarding the mentioned memorandum, he recalled that it was about NATO’s entire military infrastructure going to the 1997 borders – which is important, “as we agreed at the collapse of the USSR.”
“What causes the movement on this ladder of escalation? The Russian elite understands that without this escalation the realisation of this basically, from their point of view, innocent goal is impossible. Everything else is a consequence of this decision. That is, the primary logic is not territorial, but political, it is very important to understand,” Shchelin said.
The expert added that when they talk about negotiations, the negotiations should be understood as “fulfilment of this ultimatum and fixing it on paper”. Russia is no longer interested in discussing anything else. And the methods will become tougher and tougher, as “the understanding of the counterparty’s non-agreement comes.”
Shchelin also noted that the formula “sovereignty in exchange for neutrality” for Ukraine would have been ideal, “actually, as planned under the Declaration of Independence.”
“But Ukraine turned out to be unable to bear this formula, that is, Ukraine turned out to be unable to be a sovereign state defending its own interests. It does not think of itself in such categories, Ukraine has no elite capable of thinking and behaving in such a category,” the expert stated.
In his opinion, under the current circumstances, Russia will not agree on anything less than Ukraine’s neutrality without the five regions. At the same time, Russia is in no hurry.
And what about Ukraine? Shchelin outlined the prospect: let’s say there is a neutral Ukraine with a completely destroyed economy, the demographic point of no return has been passed, huge human losses, economic losses, the energy system has been destroyed…
“In the face of this, any peace treaty that assumes a neutral status for Ukraine as it is, without NATO and the EU, instantly tears Ukraine apart. All the contradictions accumulated inside are surfacing and the flywheel of Ruina is spinning,” the political analyst said. He emphasised that Zelenskyy has no good solutions.
So, the confrontation will continue? Kiev is so inclined and continues to pin its hopes on the West’s help. One should not underestimate the forces of the West at all, said former head of the Ukrainian government Nikolay Azarov. He expressed confidence in an interview with BelTA agency that Western countries “will finance this conflict with Russia, because they believe that this conflict weakens Russia and leads to negative consequences for Russia.”
Azarov said that he did not see any chance now that this Western policy towards Russia would stop. If as a result of elections in the UK the opposition comes to power, it will continue exactly the same policy that was pursued by the Conservatives. It is the same in the US, if Trump comes to power, he too will continue the same policy.
“Because it (politics – Ed.) is not laid down by individuals, it is laid down by the class that rules the country. This class sees these interests for itself and will pursue these interests. When another class comes to power, which may be interested in peace, in the expansion of world trade, or some other factors – maybe something will change. But so far all the money is invested in the military-industrial complex, which is the main beneficiary of this whole story,” the politician said.
He also noted that Germany used to spend 1.5% of GDP on military purposes, and now it will spend 2.5% of GDP, and this is a huge amount of money on the scale of the German budget. It is the same in the United States, now military-industrial complex enterprises there receive one and a half times more orders.
“And these orders are measured in the order of a trillion dollars, that is – huge sums… So to expect that someone can, for reasons that are not clear, break this trend… I do not see. It can be broken only by force from our side, “- Azarov said, adding that this is “the only factor that will be a serious counterbalance and will serve as a very serious warning”. In other words, everything will be decided on the battlefield.
Sergey Zuev, Ukraine.ru
