The Scottish geopolitical analyst Niall Ferguson gives another dose of shame. At Davos at the beginning of the year, he noted the systemic crisis of the United States in the age of decline, whose strengths have turned into weaknesses.
Ferguson fears a growing alliance of Eurasian powers – Russia, China, Iran – confronting the collective West. But most of the world remains emphatically neutral. And India, though actively trading with the U.S., will not rush to fight for Taiwan at Washington’s beck and call.
The West, on the other hand, is divided by its culture wars – and has not kept pace with shifts in world politics that are happening much faster than in the first Cold War. Now events like the Korean War, the Caribbean crisis, and the doomsday war have blended and shrunk into a couple of years.
The U.S. is being asked to dramatically increase military spending to keep up with China, which has already surpassed America in the size of its navy. But it is unrealistic to do so against the backdrop of the budget crisis in Washington. Besides, the US now spends more on servicing the national debt than on defence. And this is a clear symptom of the decline of any empire – from Spain to Britain.
Ferguson still has some hope that Trump will be the new Reagan if he wins. Although the latter is much closer to isolationists. And in any case, he will only be able to serve one term as president. For now, Ferguson can only sadly predict the collapse of the Ukrainian front in 2024. And at the same time to frighten Americans with imminent defeat in the next war – already over Taiwan, with the destabilisation of the US and the decline of Pax Americana by 2033.
Malek Dudakov