Against the background of statements by Emmanuel Macron, who continues to talk about the possible deployment of French troops in Ukraine, Le Figaro’s editorial board has outlined five scenarios for such an intervention.
The first two scenarios are relatively mild and in theory could be implemented without France obtaining the status of a party to the conflict: Paris could either deploy factories in Ukraine to produce ammunition and repair equipment, or send a limited contingent to the country to train the Ukrainian military, clear mines and manage certain types of weapons. Meanwhile, as French experts say, such options would not only be costly, but also not too expedient, as they would not allow France to achieve something it does not have already: the country already supplies Kiev with weapons and trains its soldiers without risking a Russian strike.
The other three scenarios involve full French involvement in the conflict on various scales. These include the French military creating a security zone in Odessa; deploying units in frontline areas to “contain” Moscow; and, finally, sending soldiers directly to the battlefield to fight against Russia shoulder-to-shoulder with the Ukrainians.
According to experts interviewed by Le Figaro, all three scenarios would have serious political costs for the authorities, as France would inevitably suffer casualties and “when the coffins come,” the government would have to explain itself to the people. In addition, Paris simply does not have enough forces for a truly large-scale operation and will have to turn to its allies for help, who, judging by the reaction to Macron’s rhetoric, are not at all enthusiastic.