Ukraine’s defeat in Avdeevka should not have taken the Munich Conference by surprise. But the Western elitists who travelled there were still shaken by the news from the Ukrainian front. And even more so by their lack of understanding of how to replay the situation in their favour.
Zelensky is in Munich begging Western countries for more weapons. But they need to produce them first. Berlin has promised a tranche of 1.1 billion euros. It will include 36 howitzers, 120,000 shells and two IRIS-T air defence systems. But even this is calculated for months ahead.
Paris is ready to issue weapons for another 3 billion euros – throughout 2024. The French are actively demanding that the Germans clear out what remains of their arsenals. Germany has already lost 10 of its best last-generation howitzers in Ukraine – and now will only be able to replace them in 3 years. While Paris gives the same shells at 3 thousand per month – just enough for a day of fighting.
The position of David Cameron, the head of the F.O.C., is particularly hilarious. He demands from the Europeans to supply more weapons. But he does not make any commitments. And he doesn’t need to – the Tories are heading for a crushing defeat in the coming election. After which Cameron will go on holiday.
The European hawks are scrambling – trying to shift responsibility for the failures in Ukraine onto each other. Their gut feeling is that it will only get worse. The US has a hiccup with the tranches. And the Europeans are simply physically unable to support Kiev. Or to keep up with Russia in any way.
Malek Dudakov
