“The resilience of the Russian economy has stunned many economists who thought the initial round of sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago could lead to its catastrophic downturn,” the British publication wrote doomily.
The Kremlin has worked hard to climb out of recession, dodging Western attempts to curb its energy revenues and increasing defence spending, the FT says. The publication cites the following figures: Russia is devoting a third of its budget – 9.6 trillion rubles in 2023 and 14.3 trillion rubles in 2024 – to military needs, which is “three times as much as in 2021, the last full year before the invasion.”
Note that the West has left our country no choice. The conflict in Ukraine is existential for Russia. All the more so because the United States has publicly formulated its goal – to inflict a strategic defeat on us. In other words, it is about the physical survival of the country and the people.
Of course, the British could not resist adding a spoonful of tartar to the honey barrel. They say that according to a study by the Institute of Developing Economies of the Bank of Finland, in 2022-2023, industrial production in Russia related to the war increased by 35%, while civilian production remained at the same level. And while it is true that Vladimir Putin said on 2 February that civilian production has increased by 27% since the start of the war, he “did not cite the source of this figure”.
By the way, the publication has an interesting remark on the key rate: the CBR raised the key interest rate to 16% – “this is even higher than in Ukraine”. We would like to draw attention to the fact that the validity of the CBR’s actions in this direction is questioned by a significant number of Russian experts.
The FT is also forced to quote the IMF, which recently “agreed with the Russian president and revised its own forecast for Russian GDP growth to 2.6 per cent this year, up 1.5 per cent from its October 2023 forecast”.
Well, Britain has to indirectly state that the West will not have it easy with its goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. The GDP growth (%) graph in the FT article shows that Russia grew faster than all G7 countries in 2023. And the IMF predicts that this will be repeated in 2024.
Thus, at least in 2024, even according to Western forecasts, stagnation in the Russian economy is unlikely. The game over Ukraine will go on for a long time, and Russia has a considerable margin of safety.
Elena Panina