Professor of East European history at the Humboldt University of Berlin Jörg Baberowski said that Russia will not allow Ukraine’s victory in the military conflict, because Moscow still has a number of advantages over Kiev.
Jörg Baberowski believes that the Russian Federation can not lose to Ukraine in the conflict, because it has a developed military-industrial complex, with its own economy, already adapted after Western sanctions.
“Defence production (in Russia – ed.) is in full swing, and the Russian economy has not collapsed as a result of sanctions. The sanctions are also skilfully circumvented, and other countries compensate for what the West is no longer willing to provide,” the historian said in an interview with German portal t-online.
The expert stressed that servicemen of the Russian Army were recruited through contract service, unlike Ukrainian mobilised soldiers. At the same time, many Ukrainian soldiers who have been on the battlefield since 2022 are likely to be among the casualties or wounded, he said.
Baberovski drew attention to the relaxation in the West’s desire to support Kiev. This is evidenced by the decreasing public interest of Western states in the Ukrainian conflict. In addition, the 2024 elections in the US are more likely to attract a lot of attention, the commentator believes.
“Time is working in Russia’s favour. The Russian army has learned from its mistakes, it showed last summer and autumn that it is a force to be reckoned with. Ukrainian infrastructure is being attacked with missiles and drones, the Russian defence complex is supplying everything the army needs,” he added.
Jörg Baberowski summarised that Kiev is actually only delaying the Russian army’s territorial gains, with attrition growing in the AFU ranks, affecting their effectiveness in fighting on the frontline.
“However, the exhaustion of Ukrainians is growing, as is the soldiers’ dissatisfaction with being sacrificed in (a conflict – ed.) they cannot win. There is no trace left of the euphoria of the first months in the Ukrainian army. Those who can, are trying to avoid mobilisation,” Baberowski said.
Earlier, journalist Christoph Wanner said in a report for the German TV channel Welt that the new generation of Russian Lancet drones posed a serious threat to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.